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A good balance is needed. The “mathematicians” invoking rigor are probably right, and should ensure ideas are given proper structure. That shouldn’t stop the necessary hand-wavey work, done on good intuition, from being done….

The answer is always “Read Recursive Macro Theory.”

10 years ago this kid casually sent me his resume via Craigslist. He'd just finished school, with no experience or real estate knowledge. I needed someone to cut checks and show space, so I called him in for an interview. This is James Martin, and here's what happened next:

Morocco’s total fertility rate in 2024 was 1.97, well below the replacement level (around 2.12 for this North African country). The figure is reported by the General Census of Population and Housing 2024 (Recensement Général de la Population et de l’Habitat 2024), published by

That is a good point. My comment was only economics not politics. If the Treasury would issue fixed value floating rate debt, the Fed would not have to be so big. And we could stop pretending that the left pocket has any thing that the right pocket does not have.

Investors typically flock to dollar debt as a haven from financial uncertainty. However, Professors Arvind Krishnamurthy and Hanno Lustig find that wasn’t the case in the wake of President Trump’s tariffs. stanford.io/45Htj33

Jon Steinsson Full Editorial Board piece on the immediate drop in affordable housing construction in St Paul. wsj.com/opinion/st-pau…

1/ Week 26: After a hiatus, the theory paper of the week is back with a beautiful classic that spawned a huge literature across fields: Temporal Resolution of Uncertainty and Dynamic Choice (1978) by Kreps and Porteus in Econometrica. Let's start with a thought experiment: 🧵

Trump's birthright citizenship order is ugly and unlawful. But that doesn't imply that courts ought to wield power that distorts our constitutional scheme and transfers power from elected officials to black-robed jurists.

Microsoft claims their new AI framework diagnoses 4x better than doctors. I'm a medical doctor and I actually read the paper. Here's my perspective on why this is both impressive AND misleading ... 🧵

All NIH-backed research now has to be publicly accessible on the day it's published. No more delays, no more waiting around, no more futzing with DOIs and having to pay journals. It's free.

This bill is more budget busting than big and beautiful. We helped balance the budget but Trump’s plan unbalances our finances and our country. Read my New York Times Opinion piece with Bob Rubin. We were members of Bill Clinton’s economic team when the federal budget was balanced, the

Menger, for family reasons The family tree: Menger -> Böhm-Bawerk -> Schumpeter -> Arthur Smithies-> Guy Orcutt -> John Meyer -> Thomas Sargent -> Me

They ordered the Thomas Jefferson statue from China and paid tariffs for it. China mass produce them. Same one on the University of Missouri campus