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Fiscal agreement reached by Brussels and Rome is already fraying - target for this year's deficit now looks unlikely to be met. Weak growth is making budget arithmetic difficult. European Commission likely to lower 2019 Italian GDP forecast to 0.2% today. bloom.bg/2BqCxBM

A reminder that the German economy is volatile and that growth in other members used to provide robust buffers against German drag. Still with lower trend growth, the risk of a mere euro-area slowdown turning into a contraction has increased.

Timing of tax reforms and increase in energy prices have weighed on French real disposable income through most of 2018. Deferred tax cuts are now providing a strong boost. A small rebound in consumer confidence post Gilets Jaunes suggests that households will spend some of it.

Is Turkey in a recession? We'll know for sure on Mar 11 with the release of GDP data. But timely indicators (IP, credit, PMI) show the economy entering a recession in 4Q18. My latest on Bloomberg Terminal

Things finally looking up a bit in Germany - and there'll be plenty of focus on IFO survey tomorrow. Full analysis here: bloom.bg/2U6dXgV ($)

A rare opportunity to join our European economic research team at Bloomberg: careers.bloomberg.com/job/detail/737…

Spain’s 4Q growth was particularly strong and higher government spending certainly helped. But growth in the private sector remains robust and any decline in public spending won’t leave a gaping hole in the economy.

European manufacturers have a sizeable exposure to U.K. demand. At a time when the sector is recovering from a series a shock and facing risks from US tariffs, consequences of a no deal Brexit (tariffs and non tariffs trade costs) would be challenging.

Still, as Lagarde noted at her last press conference, there are “some signs of a moderate increase in underlying inflation”. This can be seen as well in the distribution of inflation across the 93 sub-components of the HICP basket, with fewer items recording price declines.

The economic fallout from coronaviris could total of $2.7 trillion in lost economic output (via @TomOrlik, @JMurray804, Maeva Cousin & @Jeffrey_Black) trib.al/1tLySOv

Policy responses to Covid-19. Very nice summary tables published by Banco de España in its quarterly Economic Bulletin (h/t Fabien Bossy ). bde.es/bde/en/seccion…

In a world with lots of climate stripe graphs (all inspired by the great Ed Hawkins), I think Alex is declustering crises makes the best looking and most useful ones:

Euro-area #inflation is likely to top 4% in 4Q, more than 2 ppts above what the #ECB and Bloomberg @Economics projected at the start of the year. Unpicking the reasons for the miss shows we needn’t be scared, yet. More from Maeva Cousin & @JMurray804 in today's #EuroEco Brief.

There’s a fierce debate raging at the #BOE about raising interest rates today. Financial markets think it’s a done deal. But Dan Hanson and @JMurray804 say don't be so sure. Full analysis in today's Bloomberg #EuroEco Brief newsletters.briefs.bloomberg.com/document/b7z4f… Bloomberg Economics

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🚨🚨🚨 BIG NEWS: The Bloomberg Economics GeoEconomics Team is hiring!!! Multiple positions, including for Europe, Russia, and the Middle East! Apply via the Bloomberg Careers portal. Note there are multiple potential locations for positions. Jobs! Jobs! Jobs! careers.bloomberg.com/job/search?sd=…

Exciting news! We’re expanding the geoeconomics team at Bloomberg Economics and hiring for several positions: - Middle East analyst - Russia analyst - Defense analyst - Europe analyst - Country risk analyst Please visit this link to learn more and apply: careers.bloomberg.com/job/search

My new Factful Friday just posted on LI! 👉Please repost so the algo doesn't bury this🙏 Nuclear deterrence is based on Mutually Assured Destruction (M.A.D.) kept the peace during the Cold War. Both sides believed that a first strike would lead to catastrophic retaliation, so