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To understand why 2023’s growth was considered a below-par result for China, we have to look through the #economy’s extreme volatility during the pandemic period. Mark Kruger bit.ly/3Hmv87Q

The CHCLMR’s human capital report provides compelling evidence that improvements in the quality of the workforce have more than offset declines in its quantity. Mark Kruger bit.ly/42fkKsc

If the Fund’s January 2024 WEO forecast is realized, the world will have lost the equivalent of 7 years of GDP between 2020 and 2024. Looking across the three major economies, it appears that China has not done too poorly. Mark Kruger bit.ly/4bX9eWO

The policies announced during the Two Sessions represent a difficult balancing act between economic development, financial stability and environmental remediation. #TwoSessions Mark Kruger buff.ly/3wYzxft

Growth in Q1 benefitted from a rebound in both domestic and foreign demand. This strong performance likely narrowed the excess supply gap. Mark Kruger yicaiglobal.com/opinion/mark.k…

The IMF's optimism about China's near-term prospects contrasts with its gloomy outlook for growth over the medium term. Mark Kruger yicaiglobal.com/opinion/mark.k…

Instead of “destroying” the country, it would be more accurate to say that foreign-born US residents are maintaining it. Still, China could help reduce northbound migration pressures. Mark Kruger yicaiglobal.com/opinion/mark.k…

Price and exchange rate movements may simply be temporary. The IMF’s forecasts imply China’s underlying economic gravity is on the rise. Mark Kruger yicaiglobal.com/opinion/mark.k…

Weakness in the property is removing the equivalent of 2.3 percentage points from headline #GDP growth so far this year. This is 0.9 percentage points more than it subtracted last year. Mark Kruger yicaiglobal.com/opinion/mark.k…

It is easy for China watchers to become discouraged as the economy slows. But a detailed look at the data reveals that much of the weakness comes from a single – albeit important – sector. Mark Kruger yicaiglobal.com/opinion/mark.k…

Mr. Trump’s election reflects stagnant wages during the Biden Administration. His proposed 60% tariff with be painful for China. Mark Kruger yicaiglobal.com/opinion/mark.k…

Shanghai’s dining coupons appear to significantly boost the economy without imposing a major fiscal cost. They come close to being a free lunch. Mark Kruger yicaiglobal.com/opinion/mark.k…

The economy’s ability to accelerate in Q4 and meet the 5% annual growth target will reinforce consumer and investor confidence, setting the stage for more robust domestic spending in 2025. Mark Kruger yicaiglobal.com/opinion/mark.k…

Putting a country’s GDP numbers together is as much an art as it is a science. A number of "countable" indicators suggest that China's GDP growth was, indeed, close to 5 percent last year. Mark Kruger yicaiglobal.com/opinion/mark.k…

With apologies to Professor Krugman, China’s trillion dollar trade surplus does not appear to be a sign of weakness. Its current account position seems to be a reasonable response to coming demographic change. Mark Kruger

The government’s commitment to strong fiscal support suggests that we very well may see a rotation of demand away from net exports to consumption with GDP growth, once again, reaching 5 percent in 2025. #TwoSessions Mark Kruger buff.ly/P7x4BZq

#china #chinaeconomy #tariffs

We’ve seen false starts before but the pick-up in sales seems persistent, while strong land sales bode well for future construction. While high inventories remain a risk, the property market should benefit from buoyant macroeconomic conditions. Mark Kruger

#china #chinaeconomy #climatechange

Growth in the first half was stronger than expected. The Chinese economy is benefiting from a positive swing in its terms of trade, low domestic prices, fiscal support and the bottoming out of the property market. Mark Kruger