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Latest update from Michael Kofman and colleagues below. Russian forces are materially advantaged yet still underperforming. Ukrainian forces despite having serious disadvantages are compensating with tech and tactics. Helpful to read👇

Understanding the Kremlin’s current moves and anticipating future manipulations by three of our Carnegie scholars — in ⁦Foreign Affairs⁩ below ⁦Carnegie Politika⁩ ⁦Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士⁩ ⁦Alexandra Prokopenko⁩ ⁦Tatiana Stanovaya⁩ foreignaffairs.com/russia/putins-…

So glad to see Prince Harry visiting the amazing team at Superhumans Center and raising awareness for what they do. He has been a longtime champion for veterans everywhere. The Superhumans team is doing world-class work for the care of Ukrainian veterans.

To be clear: Russia does not have the military offensive capacity to occupy the rest of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson without large reconstitution + revising tactics. This is no concession or gift when it’s military reality for the Russians. Reality as long as AFU resourced to hold.

Russia launched over 60 missiles of varying types and over 100 drones (Shahed and Gerbera) at Ukraine last night, in four overlapping waves to overwhelm defense systems.

The Kremlin wants a ceasefire for those days because it can’t suitably defend airspace from Ukrainian drones and they want a smooth 80th anniversary victory day parade.Ceasefire could have been wise for them during negotiations or even asap but they choose cynical moves like this

**BREAKING** World First: Ukrainian Maritime Drone Shoots Down Russian Flanker Jet navalnews.com/naval-news/202…

⁦Michael Kofman⁩ and I joined ⁦War on the Rocks⁩ for a wide ranging conversation on ceasefire negotiations, battlefield outlook, and next steps for the Ukrainian and Russian militaries. warontherocks.com/2025/05/will-r…

Carnegie Russia-Eurasia Senior Fellows Michael Kofman and Dara Massicot spoke to War on the Rocks's Ryan Evans on the Trump administration's diplomatic efforts in Ukraine. warontherocks.com/2025/05/will-r…

This would assist Ukraine in many ways as an interim step to a durable ceasefire: would provide relief for western Ukraine while freezing the deadliest zone for both sides (<15km from the line of contact). US participation would strengthen the message to Russia and shore up NATO.