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Social security historians of the future might be wondering why UC got a boost in 2026 and a cut in 2029. Answer: to fine tune a public finance forecast made in Spring 2025. This is a very odd way to run fiscal policy.

Today's Spring Statement confirmed several years of slightly above-inflation increases to standard allowance of Universal Credit. This is the first rise outside a pandemic, but it still leaves the core rate of benefits about 5% lower than in 2010 .

About two-thirds of the welfare cuts announced today are concentrated among households in the bottom half of the income distribution, while the Government’s own impact assessment says that 250,000 people will fall below the poverty line as a result of these measures.

Important context to DWP saying "don't forget about our employment support!" is that it is backloaded. Doesn't start until 2026-27. Will reach £1bn extra in 2029-30, but DWP will cumulatively spend less than £1bn extra on the period covered by SR2025. gov.uk/government/pub…

Here is a thread summarising our overnight analysis of the Spring Statement.

Some of the things you'd need to believe for the national-security case on nationalising British steel to hold up—not an impossible set of premises, but a weightier than advocates typically acknowledge. From my latest S*bstack post, link ⬇️

This looks like a cracker of an event

The local elections have raised the profile of the proposed changes to disability benefits, and we'll be discussing those (and the longer-term ideas in the Pathways to Work Green Paper) on 20 May. Join us here resolutionfoundation.org/events/britain…

With two 'deals' done on trade this week, our latest Chart of the Week looks at the value of the UK's trade with some its partners. In terms of sheer volume, getting a third deal with the EU could make the biggest difference... Read more: buff.ly/VUT050m

📢 Following the latest ONS labour market stats release this morning, we've now updated our alternative employment rate estimate. Find out more and download the data here ⬇️ buff.ly/4CnqG5S

Dad-daughter pics from Wednesday's trip to the Education and Skills garden party. We probably need to up our hat game next time.

The Government's health and disability benefit reforms could boost employment by up to 105,000, but those gains are dwarfed by the number of people experiencing poverty-inducing income losses. Read 'No workaround' here ⤵️ buff.ly/YzOXy6T

Austerity’s Children – a special issue of Spotlight, the New Statesman’s policy supplement, guest edited by Gordon Brown. Inside: 🔴 Alison McGovern 🔴Dame Rachel de Souza 🔴Mike Brewer 🔴Tom Clark 🔴Harry Quilter-Pinner 🔴and more

Me on child poverty strategy news

Superb article (linked to in Helen's post). Hard to believe FT Alphaville gets paid to have this much fun...

For this week's Top of the Charts, Ruth has (temporarily) handed the reins back to Mike Brewer 📈 With reads on the changing shape of health and wellbeing in modern economies and....polish donuts? 🍩 Read now➡️ buff.ly/LI3dKNG