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Starting to think a call from Putin to calm him down might be the only thing that keeps the US out of another war in the Middle East. So that’s where we are.

"I don't care what she said..." Good to see the President has full trust in his Director of National Intelligence...

The longer the Israelis are pounding Iran to oblivion, the more ridiculous this comment sounds. x.com/LizSly/status/…

Ah so ICE doesn't like it when you ask to see their papers

The reason Lander was at the NY immigration court is because four weeks ago, ICE began deliberately RE-arresting people attending their court hearings, with the stated goal of stripping them of the right to see a judge and instead subjecting them to rapid, judge-free deportation.

Our latest poll with YouGov, conducted over the weekend, asked Americans if the US military should get involved in the war in Iran. Overall: 60% no 16% yes Republicans: 53% no 23% yes Trump voters in 2024: 53% no 19% yes

My latest for Financial Times From Iran-Contra to '03 US invasion of Iraq, and feeding of millions of $ to Hamas, Netanyahu has consistently advocated policy options that make everything worse + He can start wars but doesn't know how to end them. ft.com/content/8d75ba…

“His posture has gyrated.”

I’ll be delivering a lecture at Heidelberg University on June 18 (Wednesday) about the political implications of the March 19 crackdown and what it tells us about Turkey’s autocratizing regime. Join us at 2.15pm: sai.uni-heidelberg.de/en/events-at-s…

The ultimate success of Israeli talking points: German Chancellor Merz claims that Israel is doing the "dirty work" in Iran for the entire West. zdfheute.de/politik/g7-gip…

Israel and Iran have been preparing for this war for long decades. Their main offensive and defensive tactics were developed originally, not against each other, but as a result of their wars against the same enemy - Iraq. Back to when Iran was forced to sign a ceasefire in 1988 >

This was considered a smart take a month ago

For him, Palestinians would remain an afterthought in this “different Middle East.” Kicking the can down the road can support Israeli hubris for only so long until reality beckons with an inconvenient truth: it’s impossible for Israel to be safe without the birth of Palestine.

To grasp the fanatical delusion of the Israeli right, look here at Trump’s ex-ambassador saying Netanyahu *opposed* the Iraq War despite his well-known advocacy for it (see video). Keep away from the lie-fueled echo chamber of hasbara where such nonsense can take root & spread.

It was indeed. Blinkered contrarianism.

Once the dust settles & countries of region see Israeli military superiority in action, countries of region will reject this & will work with China to balance this superiority. THIS is exactly what China is looking to achieving (see Egypt China deals) & not get involved in

Three indicators to watch: (1) Strait of Hormuz, (2) Attacks against US bases, and (3) Movement Directed Towards Destabilizing the Gulf. These are the three trajectories to watch for in the escalation chain. We passed deferral to the IRGC today.

The view from the streets of Tehran

Mining the 'Strait of Hormuz' ... it's a little frustrating when we take the time to explain the scenario models; and people think it's not realistic or not a vector. Specifically, we raised a risk-profile of said event potential. It's within scope of near-possibility.

“This is going to schism Maga terribly online,” Kirk said. “You’re going to see — I don’t want to say a Maga civil war, but it’s going to be a Maga online food fight [which] is going to be very hard to navigate.”