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My last deed as Chair of Royal Economic Society Publications Commt. Much looking forward to seeing EJ Special Issues take off. We worked hard on concept + design, but alberto bisin will have to put words into action. Now handing over to Fabien Postel-Vinay as new PC chair. res.org.uk/special-issues…

Competitor for best university view: Villa Salviati 昭昭 florence

Should we worry about impact of looming trade war? Cristian's JMP says "yes." He develops polit. econ. model: Predicts selection of goods subj. to tariffs during trade wars. Using its predictions, he estimates trade elasticities, finds high welfare costs. cristianespinosa.com

Great postdoc opportunity to work with Daniel Lewis on exciting metrics project at UCL Economics!!

My student Cristian is on the market this year w. super interesting and topical paper on trade wars & welfare costs of trade impediments. Punchline: Discretionary tariffs are targeted, this needs to be accounted for when estimating trade elasticities => higher welfare costs.

Heidelberg castle, dinner spot for the HeiTüHo macro conference, and for the local vampires.

Some words on UK bond prices on a day that's otherwise personally for me dominated by the sad passing of my mum. But she had a long healthy life much of which she spent socializing with friends and family, her favorite activity. She will be sorely missed by me but with much joy.

I know that Morgane Richard is too modest to brag, so I will do it: Her JMP from last year was cited in the 2025 Economic Report of the President. Great work Morgane! whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…

In 2022, US imports = $3.2T Fed. indiv. and corp. inc. tax rev. = $3.25T Assuming NO pass-through to US prices, Trump needs to confiscate imports at the border (a 100% tariff rate) to repl. fed taxes - interesting experiment! And across the globe, who relies more on tariffs?

Might be a good time for everyone to remind themselves of the 1938 Munich Agreement between Britain and Germany which "settled the Czechoslovakian Problem" and Neville Chamberlain declared it was "Peace for our time" en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_for…

Add to this structural reforms in the Europe so that when these scientists come up with discoveries that are potentially marketable, entrepreneurs do not get pushed to do so in the U.S.

Apply to NorMac 2025 in wonderful Smogen! Deadline for applying is April 7th, conference is August 11-14.

Musk investment in DOGE short run pay off. But history tells us that you cannot gain competitiveness in the long run through protectionism. BBC News - Trump announces 25% tariffs on car imports to US bbc.com/news/articles/…

Apply apply apply! Seriously, be great to have you at NorMac, my favourite conference of the year.

This is London. No reserve currency status to be lost. Rethinking integration with its main trading partners (perhaps Ime being wishful). No threatening to annex territories of other sovereigns. Free press. No bullying of universities. And the best soccer team in the universe AFC

Congratulations Cris! Cristian Espinosa

Deadline for applications to our MSc programmes has been extended - apply! bsky.app/profile/hjortj…

This must be very worrying for all international students in the US. It would be a win-win for Europe to open its doors to them. cnn.com/2025/05/22/us/…

Very proud of Alice who is an RA on my ERC project. She will do great in her PhD career. She follows in the footsteps of Marina Kotsa Or Koca who is already a UCL PhD student, and Diego Almonacid Lovera who is about to start on the IIES programme. So much talent!!

👨‍🎓New paper, with Morten O. Ravn — ***Brothers in Arms: Monetary-Fiscal Interactions Without Ricardian Equivalence*** Most central bankers would agree that: 🥇reacting strongly to inflation is paramount, 🥈monetary policy must be "active", 🥉monetary policy is independent 1/N