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Thirty years ago the best investors had the biggest funnels of information. Today the best investors have the best filters of information. Filter out the noise and find the signal.

You don’t need to be in the top 1% in mental horsepower to beat the market. You need to be in the top 49% of controlling your emotions.

The equity risk premium (ERP) is the price of risk in equity markets, the receptacle for all our fears. Each year, since 2008, I have updated a paper that includes everything I know about ERP. (Warning: It is 130 pages long...) Here is the 2021 version: bit.ly/2QQd3bB

“An idiot can diversify a portfolio, or a computer. But the whole trick of the game is to have a few times when you know something is better than average, and invest only where you have that extra knowledge. If that gets you a few opportunities, that’s enough” - Charlie Munger

And SPY Night vs Day Since Inception for reference

One of my favorite illustrations I stole from Brad Freeman and Dhaval Kotecha

I gave a presentation newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/m… to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York last week to share our views on inflation and Fed policy. The bottom line: we think the Fed should taper immediately and begin raising rates as soon as possible.

1. Stocks: all-time highs 2. Home prices: all-time highs 3. Bitcoin: all-time highs 4. Wages: all-time highs 5. Job openings: all-time highs 6. Inflation: highest level in over 30 years 7. Fed/Government: we need to hold interest rates down at 0% and borrow/spend trillions more.

The Fed says its goal is a 2% average annual rate over some “long term” analysis time frame. News Flash: CPI has averaged 2.7% over the past 5 years, 2.4% over the past 30 years, and 3.9% over the past 50 years.

Some of the numbers are just unreal. MSCI World has seen its market cap grow by 27 trillion dollars in the last three years (2019-21). That is almost 10x the previous 3 year period (2016-2018). Yet aggregate reported profits grew in USD by roughly the same amount in each period!

Letter to Warren Buffett about #AAPL.

Getting rich is one thing. Staying rich is quite another.

"With food you control people, with oil you control nations, and with money you control the world." - Henry Kissinger

“The secret of all victories lies in the organization of the nonobvious.” -Marcus Aurelius

S&P500 in a CAPE-perspective: Expensive? It depends on the length of the historical comparison!

Don’t forget the #shelter ! — Source: MSCI #CPIdata

“History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme.” -Mark Twain #FTX 📉 #ENRON 📉 #LEHMAN 📉 C/T: Howard Rees (Macrobond).

30 Visual Investing Lessons 🧵 1. Moats are essential for long-term investors:

Buffett has averaged a return on investments of ~20% per year for over 60 years. Here he explains the 'science' to picking winners... and more