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Quarterly Trends presents consolidated financial statistics for the U.S. banking industry, based on data from bank regulatory filings. Data on balance sheets, earnings, deposit growth, and more are available through 2025:Q1. nyfed.org/3fkiJ6n

NEW YORK FED STAFF NOWCAST 2025:Q2 → 1.7% 2025:Q3 → 1.9% nyfed.org/3LbPEur #AMEC

The Theory of Financial Stability Meets Reality By Nina Boyarchenko, Kinda Hachem, and Anya Kleymenova #AMEC >>> nyfed.org/4472qnY

MAY 2025 UPDATE Multivariate Core Trend (MCT) inflation was 2.7 percent in May, down from its revised April value of 2.8 percent. The 68 percent probability band is (2.3, 3.1). #AMEC #PCEinflation nyfed.org/3NY8FCh

New Liberty Street Economics post introduces Losses from Natural Disasters—a comprehensive dataset on county-level damages, injuries, and fatalities from natural disasters in the U.S. nyfed.org/44e6XoI

NEW in the American Economic Review Stephan Luck and coauthors use Germany’s inflation of 1919–23 as a laboratory to study how a large inflationary shock transmits to the real economy through the debt-inflation channel. AEA Journals aeaweb.org/articles?id=10…

NEW YORK FED STAFF NOWCAST 2025:Q2 → 1.6% 2025:Q3 → 1.8% nyfed.org/3LbPEur #AMEC

GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN PRESSURE INDEX (GSCPI): The GSCPI fell to 0.00 in June, down from 0.30 in May. nyfed.org/3LmjOZ3

The latest from Liberty Street Economics The Zero Lower Bound Remains a Medium‑Term Risk By Sophia Cho, Thomas M. Mertens, and John C. Williams >>> nyfed.org/44BdWqz

In March 2020, the Fed commenced purchases of Treasury securities to address the market disruptions caused by the pandemic. New analysis finds the execution quality of those purchases good vs. earlier asset-purchase programs and considers the reasons why. nyfed.org/3GchgQY

ECONOMIC HETEROGENEITY INDICATORS (EHIs) The latest data indicate that Hispanic, middle-income, Southern, and rural households saw lower inflation than the national average. See the latest Regional and National Reports >>> nyfed.org/3Gx5dO6

SCE | June 2025 Median inflation expectations declined by 0.2 percentage point to 3.0% at the one-year-ahead horizon and were unchanged at the three-year-ahead horizon (at 3.0%) and at the five-year-ahead horizon (at 2.6%). nyfed.org/3d8q7l4 #NYFedCMD

SCE | June 2025 Median year-ahead price change expectations increased to 4.2% for gas, to 9.3% for cost of medical care, to 9.1% for the cost of college education, and to 9.1% for rent. Food price expectations remained unchanged at 5.5%. #NYFedCMD nyfed.org/3SQe6pc

ECONOMIC INDICATORS CALENDAR Keep up with key economic data releases from the New York Fed and other data providers. We include links to data sources when available. nyfed.org/3WG3DvL.

Nicola Cetorelli shared perspective on the significant growth of NBFIs and their dependence on banks for funding and liquidity support as a speaker at the #ECBForum on Central Banking 2025. Watch the replay: bit.ly/46DjrYn

NEW YORK FED STAFF NOWCAST 2025:Q2 → 1.6% 2025:Q3 → 1.8% nyfed.org/3LbPEur #AMEC

HOME PRICE DATA We track the year-over-year change in home prices across the United States. Our latest update adds data for May 2025. See the data by county >>> nyfed.org/2PmV388

The latest from Liberty Street Economics Who Lends to Households and Firms? By Nina Boyarchenko and Leonardo Elias >>> nyfed.org/40Sspx7

A Danger to Self and Others: Health and Criminal Consequences of Involuntary Hospitalization By Natalia Emanuel, Pim Welle, and Valentin Bolotnyy >>> nyfed.org/4kI6HDk

EMPIRE STATE MANUFACTURING SURVEY The July Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that manufacturing activity grew slightly in New York State. The headline general business conditions index climbed 22 points to 5.5. nyfed.org/2T8gCbr