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Today, President John Williams provided remarks at a Puerto Rico Chamber of Commerce event. He discussed the economy and monetary policy in the context of a changing and uncertain landscape. Full speech: nyfed.org/4cttnED Key takeaways: nyfed.org/3Retf2k

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2025:Q1 is 2.6%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.7, 3.6] and the 68% interval at [1.2, 4.1]. The Staff Nowcast is 2.6% for 2025:Q2. Explore the data: nyfed.org/3LbPEur

In today's post, the authors discuss how “peak demand” could turn global oil markets into a zero-sum game, where supply growth in one region would push down prices and drive out higher-cost producers elsewhere. nyfed.org/4j7bpdA

The March 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations shows that households’ inflation expectations increased at the short-term horizon, remained unchanged at the medium-term horizon, and ticked down at the longer-term horizon. nyfed.org/3XYYJNH

Business activity declined modestly in NY State in April, according to firms responding to our Empire State Manufacturing Survey. After dropping steeply last month, the headline general business conditions index rose twelve points but remained below zero at -8.1.

Business activity in the region’s service sector declined significantly for a second consecutive month, according to firms responding to our April Business Leaders Survey. nyfed.org/2N495qs

JUST RELEASED: Outlook-at-Risk → Upside risks to average inflation over the next four quarters have increased, with probabilities of higher inflation readings above historical average probabilities. Explore the data: nyfed.org/3PrFE1d

In this post, the 1st in a 2-part series, the authors offer an economic perspective on the value of a college degree, examining the costs, benefits, and return for the typical college graduate. nyfed.org/4inYlj4

In this post, the 2nd in a 2-part series, the authors consider when the cost of college might not pay off and explore differences by major. nyfed.org/3Y1IJug

The Economic Education team, an accredited provider of teacher professional development, reaches almost 600 teachers a year at its in-person trainings. Today's article highlights a presentation the deputy director of research gave to teachers. nyfed.org/43R8scz

This morning, President John Williams shared his perspective on the U.S. economic outlook in an interview with Fox Business. Watch here: fxn.ws/4lzT8HF

JUST RELEASED: Reserve Demand Elasticity → The elasticity of the federal funds rate to reserve changes is very small and statistically indistinguishable from zero. The estimate suggests that reserves remain abundant. Explore the data: nyfed.org/3A5Adl9

In today's post, the authors build on their previous research about decentralized finance (DeFi) to map out the relationships between different players in the Ethereum ecosystem and understand the economic incentives at play. nyfed.org/4jLRalY

Anna Nordstrom has been named head of our Markets Group, effective immediately. She has served as interim head of the Markets Group since December 2024. nyfed.org/4irKwA6

The labor market for recent college graduates deteriorated noticeably in the first quarter of 2025. The unemployment rate jumped to 5.8 percent, the highest reading since 2021, and the underemployment rate rose sharply to 41.2 percent. Explore the data: nyfed.org/collegelabor

Amid increasing pressure on the Chinese economy from its trade conflict with the U.S., assessing the strength of the Chinese economy is an important watch point. In today's post, the authors gauge China’s recent economic performance and policy changes. nyfed.org/4d5odiN

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2025:Q1 is 2.6%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.7, 3.6] and the 68% interval at [1.1, 4.1]. The Staff Nowcast is 2.6% for 2025:Q2. Explore the data: nyfed.org/3BhADWl

The Survey of Consumer Expectations release calendar has been updated for 2025 here: nyfed.org/3EvUkrf

The final New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2025:Q1 was 2.6%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.7, 3.6] and the 68% interval at [1.2, 4.1]. nyfed.org/3LbPEur

Today, President John Williams provided remarks at the Reykjavík Economic Conference. He discussed the key characteristics of monetary policy approaches that are robust to uncertainty. nyfed.org/42Qku56