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One of the great ironies of the situation is the prospect of attack was almost certainly a key factor deterring Iran from deciding to weaponize or enrich to 90%. Now, by attacking prematurely and abetting an Israeli attempt at regime change, we may encourage that outcome.

I've worked up an assessment of U.S. and Israeli missile defense interceptor expenditures since June 13 Based on video evidence AT LEAST, 39 THAAD, 34 Arrow-3, & ~9 Arrow-2s have been used. For more on the methodology, ABM sites in Israel, and implications, check out the article

Witkoff, who has been the lead US negotiator with Iran, doesn’t know the difference between a reactor and enrichment facility.

This is how you get distorted intelligence assessments, where dissenting analysis is deterred or suppressed. Hegseth: “anyone who says the bombs were not devastating is just trying to undermine the president and the successful mission” ft.com/content/023cc0…

#Iran’s Parliament approved a motion to suspend cooperation with the IAEA - International Atomic Energy Agency ⚛️. The vote was 221 in favor, 0 against, and 1 abstention out of 223 present.

As a precarious Israel-Iran ceasefire takes hold & concerns shift to what's left of #Iran's nuclear program & HEU, #Russia rejects Western pressure on #Iran to now immediately provide access to #IAEA inspectors to its nuclear facilities, so they can verify where its HEU is. 🧵

Why would Iran *have to* rebuild all three entirely? It could much more quickly and efficiently reconstitute a program with a smaller footprint aimed principally at building a bomb.

Special Blue Blaze roundtable on Iran, with comments from Daniel Byman Nicholas Miller Heather Hurlburt, Jonathan Kirshner, Jeff Friedman, Daryl Press, Alison Russell blueblaze.substack.com/p/special-roun…

NYT: Centrifuges at the Fordo uranium enrichment plant in Iran are “no longer operational” after the United States attacked the facility with bunker-busting bombs, Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said on French radio on Thursday.

How effective were strikes against Iran? U.S. and Israeli officials stress how long it would take Iran to rebuild its previous nuclear program. But there's a MUCH more important issue: How long it would take Iran to get the bomb? For that, a small program would suffice. (1/n)

The Pentagon does not want to answer this key question: where is the 440 kg of near weapons grade Highly Enriched Uranium and could it have been moved? So I asked some nuclear experts. Daryl Kimball, Arms Control Association, Daryl G Kimball explained how Iran could and likely

#Iran’s FM dismissed #Trump’s claim of talks with Iran next week. He said, “No arrangements, agreement or decision have been made for negotiations with America yet. There hasn’t even been any talk about it. We merely have internal discussions which is separate from that.”

The only reason Iran was so close to being able to build a nuclear weapon is because Trump pulled out of that deal. Trump created the problem that he is now trying to “solve” through force.

Telling comments from Sens. Cotton and Graham. It's incredible--and not in a good way--to fight war that's nominally for nonproliferation and end up with several bombs' worth of highly enriched uranium (after further enrichment) left unaccounted for.

Translation of Iran’s “Law on Obligating the Government to Suspend Cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA),” approved in accordance with Article 94 of the Constitution of Iran and by the Guardian Council.

We were lucky enough to have our YouGov/The Economist poll in field when the US bombed Iranian nuclear facilities. You can see the partisan realignment in real time

I’d put the emphasis on “possible” here.

The barn door is open. Iran has cleared the entrance to one of the tunnels at Isfahan, which Zachary Cohen reports was too deep to strike with MOPs. If Iran's stockpile of HEU was ever "buried" there, it isn't now.

There is a precedent for “mowing the grass” to try to prevent a country from going nuclear and it didn’t end well: see Iraq from 1981-2003. Iran is a very different case but it is worth considering that this could be the start of a long campaign with unforeseeable consequences.

Head of the International Atomic Energy Agency Rafael Grossi tells CBS News' Margaret Brennan that "some could have been destroyed as part of the attack, but some could have been moved."