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Looking for something good to read? Try "A Man For All Markets" by investing legend Edward O. Thorp. Thorp tells his life’s journey, from being a card-counting mathematics professor to one of the original great quantitative investors who ushered in a revolution on Wall Street.

In July 1967, the Beatles released their famous single All You Need Is Love. Nothing could be further from the truth in the world of investing. The more popular an investment becomes, the less its profit potential because such adulation is likely reflected in its price.

The trillion-dollar questions: (1) Will inflation return to target levels soon? (2) What's reflected in asset prices? The good news: inflation is unlikely to be anywhere near what it was during the Volcker era. The bad news: a return to ultra-low rates is highly unlikely.

Buffett said, “Only when the tide goes out do you learn who has been swimming naked.” I have a feeling that the change in the macro backdrop will expose some segments. With the future holding more downside, risk management should be awarded a central role in investment decisions.

This quote from the late, great #CharlieMunger comes to mind: “Mimicking the herd invites regression to the mean (merely average performance).” Too many managers have portfolios that mimic the index. If your portfolio mimics the index, your results will be the same less fees.

Had the pleasure of being on BNN Bloomberg last week to discuss the outlook for 2024 bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/vide…

Thanks to Ryan Stotland for stopping by the OutcomeWM office today to play some of his very fun songs for us. Of course, I had to join in with a bit of playing of my own!

Robbing Peter to Pay Paul: A manager who delivers 2xs the returns of their benchmark, but also experiences 2xs the volatility neither creates nor destroys value. They're robbing Peter by exposing him to higher volatility while paying Paul in the form of equally higher returns.

A manager who delivers 1.5 times the benchmark’s returns while experiencing twice the volatility not only fails to add value, but in fact destroys it. They are robbing Peter by exposing him to higher volatility while paying Paul less in the form of higher returns.

Lastly, a manager who delivers the same return as the benchmark while experiencing only 75% of its the volatility is truly skilled. They are robbing Peter by exposing him to higher volatility while paying Paul more in the form of higher returns.

Predicting stock market returns is largely an exercise in futility. Not one major Wall St. strategist predicted either the tech wreck of the early 2000s or the global financial crisis of 2008-9.

My latest piece in the Financial Post : financialpost.com/investing/take…

Dividend-paying stocks are like the Volvos of the investing world. They’re not fancy or exciting, nor do they produce windfall profits over the short term. However, they have a lot going for them when you take a deeper look under the hood.

How do you feel about a 52-hour work week? In the time it takes Canadian workers to produce $1 worth of goods and services, an American worker produces $1.30 – a 30% advantage.

A severely bloated and inefficient public sector combined with entrenched oligopolies with little incentive to increase productivity has taken a toll on our standards of living. This dramatic productivity disadvantage means that something’s gotta give.

Either: 1) We must accept a significantly lower standard of living than our neighbours to the south, or 2) We need to increase a typical workweek from 40 to 52 hours to have comparable incomes to those in the U.S.

Had the pleasure of chatting with Paul Bagnell on BNN Bloomberg yesterday about my views on markets in 2024. bnnbloomberg.ca/video/tsx-pois…

Have you heard of the Kelly Criterion? It seeks to max wealth by adjusting the amounts of capital committed to investments as expected returns and risks fluctuate. It says you should up your allocation when the odds are more favourable & curtail your it as the odds deteriorate.

Thanks to Wealth Professional Canada for the opportunity to share my insights for 2024. wealthprofessional.ca/investments/mu…

My latest piece in the Financial Post: financialpost.com/investing/know…