Olli Heinonen (@olliheinonen) 's Twitter Profile
Olli Heinonen

@olliheinonen

Distinguished Fellow, Stimson Center

ID: 624247003

calendar_today02-07-2012 01:18:00

951 Tweet

900 Followers

182 Following

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There are number of impacts by a strike. Any shock like detonation send a wave causing high speed centrifuges spinning to crack. Sudden cut of electricity and supply of (cooling) water or elimination of the electronic control systems of centrifuges does the same.

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It is important for the IAEA to remain factual and base statements on observations verified on ground. If the IAEA has visited the Isfahan site after the strike, it should be clearly spelled out in the statement. Good also to note that the wide site has underground structures.

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Firing has to great extent ceased with different understandings between parties. Let us now see what the UN Security Council can today generate if not through a resolution, at least, by a Presidential Statement.

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Not the time for wishful thinking. Where more than 400 kg 60 % enriched uranium is unknown. Possibility for ca 1000 centrifuge enrichment facility with a small uranium metal laboratory able to make pieces for the first nuclear weapon in one month exists. Threat remains.

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bbc.com/news/articles/…. One of the scenarios. But if Iran had already a small secret 1000 centrifuge facility with uranium metal conversion lab, the picture is different. Those in charge of risk assessments, want the IAEA to verify uranium and centrifuge stocks this week.

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Iran Warns Cannot Guarantee IAEA Inspector Safety After US-Israeli Strikes jewishbreakingnews.com/iran-warns-can… Safety is of concern, but not unnecessary reason for verification delays. The IAEA had in the Iraqi missions is 1991 own experts in the teams. New Zealanders made a great job.

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To topic of South Africa providing Iran with uranium. At the time SA was not a NPT state. In spite of that - in the mid-80s - SA reported yellow cake shipments, which receipts Iran failed to report until considerable amount of requests made by the IAEA. Early steps of deception ?

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From fall 2003 until 2010 the SNSC of Iran was the negotiating counterpart of the IAEA. The benefit was the authority of the UNSC which exceeded those of the AEOI and the Foreign Ministry.