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Neither academic, governmental, nor private sector actors like insurers are well incentivized to provide reliable climate forecasts. ⁦Patrick T. Brown⁩ on why prediction markets are a better option: interactivebrokers.com/campus/traders…

Could climate prediction markets where participants put skin in the game to forecast future climate outcomes deepen our understanding of climate risk? Patrick T. Brown's effort may shed new insight into how society perceives such hazards. Worth tracking. interactivebrokers.com/campus/traders…

Climate scientist Patrick T. Brown is changing the conversation on climate change. 🌍 Hear Patrick T. Brown at #SVAF25 as he brings a solutions-driven approach — not doomsday headlines. Ph.D. from Duke, co-director at Breakthrough, lecturer at Johns Hopkins University.

My introductory article on our new Paris Agreement Forecast Contracts: interactivebrokers.com/campus/traders…

A graph that changed how I think about climate variability was this one from Deser et al. The variety in 50-year (!) winter temperature trends across 30 ensemble members of a climate model with identical greenhouse gas forcing (the 30 only differ due to initial condition

The Atlantic Hurricane season is 27 days away. Hurricanes are perhaps the type of extreme weather that is most often tied to climate change, but scientific evidence suggests a nuanced relationship that depends on the characteristics of the hurricane being discussed. Prediction

2025 Global Temperature Prediction Markets: Where We Stand in May. interactivebrokers.com/campus/traders…

Interested in how the 'wisdom of the crowds' can inform us on the robustness of the global food system? Check out our global crop yield Forecast Contracts. interactivebrokers.com/campus/traders…

Severe thunderstorms and their components—specifically tornadoes, strong straight-line winds, and hail—rank as the second-largest source of insured losses globally among all hazards. A recent analysis of insurance data revealed that from 1990 to 2022, inflation-adjusted losses

Performance of IBHS FORTIFIED HomeTM Construction in Hurricane Sally. aldoi.gov/PDF/News/Perfo… "We find that Fortified-designated construction performed better than conventional construction in Hurricane Sally. Depending on the selected designation, sample, and measure,

Prediction markets have long been recognized for their ability to provide information by aggregating and representing the collective “wisdom of the crowd,” but they also have other, less discussed applications, like the hedging of financial risk to weather or climate disasters.

Nice overview by Rob Mayeda NBC Bay Area of our research regarding the potential for fuel reduction methods, such as prescribed burning and mechanical thinning, to reduce wildfire intensity in a warming California: nbcbayarea.com/news/local/cli… Underlying paper:

Misleading framing in nature paper suggests global crop production will decrease by 2100. In fact, it only predicts that crop yields will grow more slowly than if climate change wasn’t happening, meaning they will very likely continue to grow. 🧵 doi.org/10.1038/s41586…

Great discussion. But why does it take so much effort to get to this more complete discussion (and frankly, why is the more complete discussion so obscured by the study itself, press releases, and coverage)? It’s almost as if the social and professional incentives of high-impact

I've written about this conflation of the direction of a trend with the direction of an impact as a "rhetorical ambiguity that propagates climate misinformation". thebreakthrough.org/journal/no-20-…

From my The Free Press essay: "...it is standard practice to calculate impacts for scary hypothetical future warming scenarios that strain credibility while ignoring potential changes in technology and resilience that would lessen the impact. Those scenarios always make for