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Putin... Ukraine... Gaza... climate change... defence spending... the challenge from China. However few or many votes they sway in Britain's election, these will matter for its new government. My blog for Carnegie Europe looks at Labour's foreign policy. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strateg…

Yes, Labour is plainly on course for a landslide victory, unless... My latest blog for Prospect looks at the lessons from history, the accuracy of polls and how far campaigns change voters' minds. prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/elect…

Forget 1997; the current election is more like 1945 - with the strongest Tory areas suffering most. This is terrible news for Rishi Sunak. In 1945, Labour owed its landslide to this pattern. Compared with what would have happened under uniform swing, it doubled Labour's majority

Conservatives down from 43 to 16%, holding just 2 seats, and overtaken by Reform's populist appeal. No, not a prediction for July 4. At least not yet. It's what happened in Canada in 1993. My blog for Prospect considers whether it can happen here. prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/elect…

In heading for their historic defeat on July 4, the Tories have ended up losing big battles on two fronts, both defined by Brexit. My blog for Prospect examines how the Boris Johnson's winning coalition in 2019 has crumbled to dust. prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/elect…

Too many polls? Nonsense: the more the better. Together, they dampen the noise and give us the signal. This tells us that over the campaign, Lab and Con are down, LD and Reform up, with Lab lead virtually unchanged. See my blog for Prospect prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/elect…

Conventional wisdom says a Labour landslide all but guarantees 10 years of Lab rule. CW is wrong. Lab has reached the summit because the mountain shrunk, thanks to Tories and Farage. My blog for Prospect argues that Lab may be less lucky next time. prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/elect…

Can Kamala Harris defeat Donald Trump? My blog for Prospect analyses the latest American polls. prospectmagazine.co.uk/world/united-s…

Apologies if you are seeing this message for the second time. Not sure my previous one reached cyberspace. I am leaving X/Twitter and from now on will post my messages on @paterkellner.bsky.social

In my last message I mistyped my handle on my bluesky account. It's Peter Kellner.bsky.social

A reminder that I have moved to Blue Sky: Peter Kellner.bsky.social. In addition I have started writing on Substack: kellnerp.substack.com

Will the US polls be third time lucky? My latest blog for Substack uncovers the big mistake they made in 2020, and why it won't be repeated. kellnerp.substack.com/publish/post/1… From now on, follow me on Substack kellnerp.substack.com and BlueSky Peter Kellner.bsky.social

A popular magazine has some great ideas for rescuing Labour from its current malaise. It was published 84 years ago. Here is what it said, and its lessons for Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves kellnerp.substack.com/p/let-us-fac...

Oops. Here is the right link. A popular magazine has some great ideas for rescuing Labour from its current malaise. It was published 84 years ago. Here is what it said, and its lessons for Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves. kellnerp.substack.com/p/let-us-face-…

The big question is the same for all Budgets: What can possibly go wrong? My Substack post sets out the Risk Register that Rachel Reeves is likely to need. kellnerp.substack.com/p/what-can-pos…

Two cheers for America's pollsterrs, but none for J. Ann Selzer or Nate Silver. What went right last week, what went wrong, and why. My analysis for Prospect prospectmagazine.co.uk/world/united-s…

Exposed: the myth about Labour's Red Wall triumph. Ministers' rule out an EU deal that restores frictionless trade.They think their more limited policy won back votes in the Red Wall. My latest Substack post challenges this belief. (Subscribe for free) kellnerp.substack.com/p/exposed-the-…

Twas the night(mare) before Christmas... Suppose Farage asked one of his team at Reform to set out a strategy for victory. This Substack post is my stab at the advice they could give him. kellnerp.substack.com/p/memo-to-nige…

Elon Musk is talking to Nigel Farage MP about how to help Reform UK. Could Farage become Prime Minister? Unlikely but not impossible. Here is what it would take. kellnerp.substack.com/p/memo-to-nige…

Is our two-party system on the way out? The past century has been punctuated by predictions that it would collapse. It hasn't. My new year Substack post discusses whether it now faces a more potent challenge than in the past. kellnerp.substack.com/p/is-our-two-p…