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Featuring me, with ⁦Adam Fleming⁩ ⁦Chris Mason⁩ and ⁦Matt Chorley⁩ Newscast - Local Electioncast: The Preview - BBC Sounds bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p0…

EVENT: Join us 6th May where speakers from YouGov Find Out Now BMG Survation. @IpsosUK @Verian Electoral Calculus More in Common will share their reflections on polling at the last election and what we’ve learned along the way britishpollingcouncil.org/category/event/

“Shambles”, “chaotic”, “fragile”, “gross” “desperate” and “rapidly going down hill” - how More in Common focus groups sum up the state of Britain ahead of local and mayoral elections in a fragmented electorate - read the full story in this week’s The Observer Luke Tryl

"They are still having this tension between a party that builds a broad coalition towards the centre of British politics... or are they still wanting to refight the 2019 election?" Professor of politics Jane Green on the Conservative party post-Brexit #Newsnight

What are the challenges facing the Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens ahead of May's #LocalElections? I spoke to ITV News to explain more - watch it here: youtu.be/T9pKpbECtKk?si…

Will gains for Reform UK in May's #LocalElections mean that they are on the march, perhaps even all the way to Number 10? Interpreting the Local Elections will be tricky - check out my guide with ITV News here: youtube.com/watch?v=S6ZGBk…

Do the #LocalElections matter when it comes to success in a General Election? From location to voter behaviours, there are lots of different factors at play - check out my explainer with ITV News: youtube.com/watch?v=1DSb1I…

'It’s possible that the Conservatives will now under-perform in locals too because their vote is now split on the right.' Oxford Politics and IR's Jane Green explores what the upcoming local elections tell us about the changing state of British politics ⬇️

I’d put money on a government doing really well with a huge push for a Keep Britain Tidy campaign over a year. An environmentalism the majority would support with a helpful amount of nostalgia. (I’ve said this before. Might just keep repeating it ad infinitum).

For a GE read across the most important thing I’ll be looking for on Friday morning this week is evidence of tactical voting in Runcorn. If the left votes against Reform, that is massively important. If disillusionment outweighs that, equally critical.

Never before has a single party government had such a low starting vote share …

Morning all. I think the conclusion by the end of yesterday was that two party politics is over. I don’t think that’s necessarily right. But I do think the question is now: which big two.

What is the threat to Labour now? Conservative collapse to Reform (it helps but also harms Labour), and lack of coordination and return of voters on the left. Check out our thoughts and evidence on the high-stakes constituency level risks of decisions the parties take now.

Really looking forward to today’s data visualisation class with Flourish, where I’ll be going behind the scenes to walk through the little design decisions that can transform a chart. Free to watch for anyone interested: eventbrite.co.uk/e/designing-fo… (Recording will be

Usually very difficult to poll non-voters, but there will be many more in 2024 given how much turnout dropped compared to 2017 and 2019. So these people may be those who felt disillusioned in 2024 but voted Tory (by far most likely) in 2019 and/or 2017.

Fragmentation in party choice isn’t new. The big split on the right is. So how can we understand this splintering trend in British politics and understand the 2017/2019 elections as departures from that trend? This is what I try to explain here:

🧵 One of the key tasks for Labour tomorrow in the spending review is convincing the public the Government will improve their lives. Just after the election 54% the public said they expected Labour to improve the lives of people like them that is now just 29%

Important …