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Trump's "Make Iran Great Again" post calling for regime change is dangerously escalating a powder keg. Russian officials already discussing foreign nuclear weapons going to Iran. google.com/amp/s/www.foxn…

We finally found how to constrain Trump: B2 pilots must sleep!

Iran's limited retaliation against US base is carefully calibrated. The hoal is likely to continue progress toward nuclear weapons without giving the US more reason to move up the escalation ladder

Pres Trump's positive statement clearly signals credible interest in diplomacy. Nig question: what will US offer to Iran differently than before? See my next post for the deal that would matter

The deal that would matter: Iran freezes enrichment and accepts NPT inspections and Israel joins NPT and freezes its nuclear weapons and follows tge treaty. Israel is not now a member of NPT, but wants Iran to accept it??

48 hours after US strike: still no evidence a single ounce of enriched uranium was destroyed. The 1000lb of 60% were in canisters that could be anywhere. Ultimate needle in the haystack!

IAEA chief says Iran evacuated the enriched uraniaum from Fordo prior to US attack. Probably need only 10 vehicles. Evidence mounts that air power hasn't done much except stir up chaos in one of the most dangerous regions in the world: nytimes.com/2025/06/22/us/…

Now clear Israel and US attacks on Iran's nuclear program were all high risk, no meaningful reward. We are not stopping nuclear breakout, but creating an Iran with nuclear teeth: nytimes.com/2025/06/24/us/…

Terrorist attacks vs Americans are a real possibility. Likely inspired by US attacks, not command directed from Iran, as in New Orleans on New Years:fbi.gov/news/press-rel…

Big surprise was not strategic failure of Fordo attack. Fully predictable Iran would move out core materials and we couldn't destroy everything. The BIG surprise was tactical failure of MOABs to penetrate the bunkers. They were designed for this mission. Why did MOABs fail??

Why did MOPs fail? My surmise:   failed to fully consider reinforced concrete layers btw surface and bunkers.  An obvious design for bunkers during Cold War.  Just toured one near Hangzhou.

Touring Chinese nuclear bunker i. HANGZHOU yesterday

Terrific oped ln Irans covert enrichment options by Gary Samore, well-informed and not a pretty picture: urldefense.com/v3/__https://o…$

Great assessment of Israel’s interceptor use: armscontrolwonk.com/archive/122052…

China following Trump and Iran crisis very closely. In China lecturing on Trump 2.0 foreign policy in Beijing, Wuhan, Shenzhen, and, below, Hangzhou:

Given now detailed BDA, Iran is still 3-8 months from a bomb, if not closer.

Important to remember, in Feb we learned Iran was planning to build a crude atomic weapon, like Hiroshima bomb. 4 months before Israel/US bombing and plenty of time to make progress: nytimes.com/2025/02/03/us/…

The Hiroshima bomb used only 80% enriched uranium, a threshold Iran crossed over a year ago re IAEA. This is why intel estimates that Iran could be only 3 months away are credible, estimates that are now months old: thebulletin.org/2015/02/the-we…

My lengthy interview on big picture on the ongoing Iran crisis, why it matters to US domestic violence, and why it matters audiences for my lectures in China: news.wttw.com/2025/06/24/uch…

Trump and many media are using the wrong standard:  the issue is NOT Iran reconstituting industrial-scale enrichment a la Fordo but moving from 400kg 60% HEU to a crude nuclear weapon (s) at secret site.  Why wouldn't there be a "Tehran Project"?    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manhattan…