The standout feature from Reform’s performance in the polls is not how many votes they are winning from the Conservatives and Labour, but how many they are gaining from non-voters. Whether or not these voters actually turn out will shape the next election - a 🧵

Canada Electoral Model Update (May 31) 🔴LIB: 160 seats (-9) 🔵CON: 151 seats (+7) ⚜️BQ: 21 seats (-1) 🟠NDP: 9 seats (+2) 🟢GRN: 2 seats (+2) 🔴Liberal Minority (+/- change form 2025 election) Feel free to ask for any ridings

Final Poliwave federal electoral predictions predictions Vs. Actual results: 🔴LIB: 167 seats | 169 seats 🔵CON: 137 seats | 144 seats 🔷BQ: 24 seats | 22 seats 🟠NDP: 13 seats | 7 seats 🟢GRN: 2 seats | 1 seat

Do they even realize the more they post ridiculous things like this the more likely Alberta is going to seperate

What we modellers do is not to predict every ridings perfectly, but how an election might turn out based on avaiable regional and general data.

When was the last time someone did a federal poll in any of the territories ridings

Ould you rather be

I love when some people call my model “complete made-up bullshit” because they somehow think the model Polling Canada made is actual polling while mine’s not when we pretty much use the exact same methods

Just a few hours ago I was wondering why Polymarket had Trzasaskowski at 80% consider the polls are pretty close and Nawrocki outperformed the polls last round, then I realised it's Polymarket being Polymarket again

UK Electoral Model Update (May 9) 🟪REF: 337 (+10) | 30.8% 🟥LAB: 145 (+20) | 23.0% 🟧LDM: 86 (-4) | 14.8% 🟨SNP: 34 (-12) | 2.5% 🟦CON: 16 (-13) | 17.1% 🟩GRN: 7 (-1) | 9.2% (+/- change from may 1) Reform Majority Government Feel free to ask for any constituencies

For some reason my model underestimate Reform pretty significantly compared to other models.

No Windows I WILL NEVER UPDATE TO WINDOWS 11 no matter how hard you trick me

The spam is getting out of hards