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it's a greek-alphabet-soup kinda day

CLV Fed: median PCE price index annual inflation fell below 3.0% in Mar for 1st time since Sep '21 while headline and core PCE also tumbled - still a long way to go before inflation is slain, but a step in the right direction:

DAL Fed: trimmed mean PCE price index moved in the right direction in Mar as inflation slowed noticeably, w/ the annualized M/M rate falling all the way to 1.8% - the lowest since Dec '20 and below the 2.0% target

DAL Fed: in Mar, the number of consumer items rising at annual rates of 10%+ and 5-10% slowed noticeably while an increasing number of items had price declines - a dramatic improvement:

For those playing along at home, this measure of inflation is now lower than it was at any point of the Biden administration...

Annual inflation rates slowed dramatically in Mar and that cooling was widespread among consumer prices - not only did the headline PCE price index fall, but 3 price indices designed to remove outliers also fell significantly:

Energy prices in Mar were down 2.6% from Jan - still a VERY long way to go, but it's a step in the right direction and we're already seeing positive moves in terms of production and infrastructure in the sector:

Trade deficit exploded yet again in Mar, smashing the previous record as imports rose to $419 billion w/ front running of tariffs; Q1 '25 trade deficit was a whopping 92.6% higher than Q1 '24

It's interesting that pharmaceutical components were a large portion of the increase in the trade deficit for Mar, w/ imports rising almost $21 billion M/M while exports in this category rose less than $900 million:

There are no winners in trade wars But not everyone loses equally…

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NY Fed: global supply chain pressure index fell slightly in Apr (supply chain less constrained) despite the massive surge in imports as tariff front running continued; there's already excess capacity and that's set to explode in the coming months:

All those delinquent student loans get real in about 12 hours.

The What's the Biggs Idea? podcast is back! Today I'll be joined by E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. in-studio. This will be a great discussion—tune in LIVE at 12:00 pm EDT/9:00 am PDT!

This is on top of previous report showing net private employment falling 163k in Q2 of '24, meaning a net loss for the 6 months from Apr through Sep, while monthly job reports during those months showed a gain of 797k nonfarm payrolls - a difference of almost 1 million!

Seems unlikely outstanding student loans would surge in Q1 from increase in borrowing right as Trump admin cracks down on loan nonperformance, including reporting accounts to credit bureaus; curious if Biden's "pause" meant certain loans weren't on the books at all, but now are:

Consumer credit bounced back in Mar w/ a large contribution from student loan balances unexpectedly jumping; increased indebtedness coupled w/ relatively high rates is a painful combination for consumers:

Revolving debt mercifully isn't growing much anymore, likely due to a combination of folks unwilling to borrow more and banks being unwilling to lend to people w/ large balances; real wage gains this year are reducing the number of people who need credit cards to make ends meet: