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Based on results so far, turnout in #FL06 is on pace to be a little less than half of last November, which is a big reason Weil (D) is turning in a double-digit overperformance (though not enough to threaten GOP control of the seat).

I've seen enough: Jimmy Patronis (R) defeats Gay Valimont (D) in the #FL01 special election.

Democrats are performing so well in low-salience races that you almost wonder if they’d be better off not advertising in special elections at all. The Dem base is extremely attuned to off-cycle races, even when they get no coverage. As spending goes up, more Republicans tune in.

I've seen enough: Susan Crawford defeats Brad Schimel in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election, preserving liberals' 4-3 majority.

Dems reduced Trump’s margin tonight in FL-1 by 22 points and in FL-6 by 16. Fwiw, Elise Stefanik’s NY-21 was Trump +20.

My job is done here. Goodnight.

Here are the CD”s that showed biggest shifts to GOP/DEM from 2020-2024. Note, the biggest GOP shifts are in minority-majority seats, while biggest Dem shifts in places that saw increase in white, professional population.

New Cook Political Report: the number of swing seats (R+5 to D+5) has rebounded from 82 to 87, as several previously strong Dem Hispanic majority districts became more competitive in 2024. But that's still down 47% from 164 swing seats in 1999. cookpolitical.com/cook-pvi/intro…

Trump's trade of college+ white voters (numerous in swing seats) for working-class nonwhites (mostly in safe Dem seats) has reduced the GOP skew of the House map. Today's median House seat is R+1, down from R+3 a decade ago. Full report Cook Political Report: cookpolitical.com/cook-pvi/intro…

Almost 70% of R’s in the House have been elected since Trump. Also, Trump outran many of these members in their own CDs.

What were our big takeaways from the new Cook 2025 PVI report? Listen to Dave Wasserman, Amy Walter & Erin Covey on the latest Editors Roundtable: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/edi…

New Cook Political Report: If there was ever a time for congressional Republicans to pass legislation that would rein in the president’s tariff authority, it would be now. Amy Walter explains why they won't: cookpolitical.com/analysis/natio…

NEW podcast! By this measure, America is actually a little less polarized these days. Dave Wasserman talks with Amy Walter about our new Cook PVI report. Listen: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/by-…

SUN| Cook Political Report Senior Editor David Wasserman (Dave Wasserman) discusses the latest analysis of the electorate and shifts in political polarization. Watch live at 8:00am ET!

Will be on Washington Journal at 8am ET to talk Cook Political Report's new 2025 PVI report among other topics (recent polling & 2026). Bonus points for on-topic callers.

The Cook Political Report’s PollTracker is back! Our curated polling aggregator calculates a rolling average of Trump’s overall approval rating as well as his standing within key demographic subgroups. Learn more: cookpolitical.com/survey-researc…

Latest Inside Elections podcast episode is up w/ me, Jacob Rubashkin and guest Dave Wasserman Dave Wasserman talking about....redistricting! I know you're surprised and want to listen. insideelections.com/news/article/p…

Want to get behind the scenes with our fantastic team? Here's a day in the life in 60 seconds. ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ cookpolitical.com/subscribe

NEW Cook Political Report: Echoes of 2018? Dems are well-positioned to take back House control in 2026 owing to a partisan intensity gap, but the underlying factors (economy, party images) are different this time. cookpolitical.com/analysis/natio…