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It is likely to come down to undecided and persuadable voters to decide this election. I dug into their concerns about each candidate to understand their worries and what is holding them back. Their views, in their own words, are fascinating nytimes.com/interactive/20…

Harris leads Trump 49% to 46% in The New York Times SienaResearch survey, the first time she has been ahead in that poll since joining the race, as more voters see her as the agent of change in the contest. Adam Nagourney Ruth Igielnik Camille Baker nytimes.com/2024/10/08/us/…

I'm excited to be hosting NYAAPOR's (virtual) pre-election roundtable on October 28th (a week before Election / National Nail Biting day). We're joined by an illustrious group of experts: Ryan Enos (Inactive Account) , Natalie Jackson, Karthick Ramakrishnan, and Ruth Igielnik. Don't miss out! (RSVP 👇)

We polled voters on this and most said they absolutely took Trump seriously on mass deportation (67% of voters overall and 70% of Republicans) nytimes.com/interactive/20…

Many polls out there these final hours really don’t tell you much. This one on the health of democracy breaks through. By Nick Corasaniti and Ruth Igielnik nytimes.com/2024/10/27/us/… via The New York Times

Do voters take Trump seriously? 67% take him seriously about deporting millions of undocumented immigrants 60% take him seriously about using DOJ to prosecute his political opponents But just 48% take Trump seriously about using the military against fellow citizens (Times/Siena)

A final point that I *hope* is obvious from the whole of my work, but may not be obvious if you only read individual snippets: I have no idea whether our polls (or any polls) polls be "right", too good for Harris, or too good for Trump. No one does.

America in 2024

Donald J. Trump picked up support among Latino and Black working-class voters, giving the party hope for a new way to win in a diversifying nation. By ace team Michael C. Bender + Katie Glueck + Ruth Igielnik + Jennifer Medina nytimes.com/2024/11/06/us/…

Check out "A First Look at the 2024 Election Results and Pre-Election Polls" featuring Kabir (kabirkhanna.bsky.social), Ruth Igielnik, David Binder, jim hobart and sponsored by Roper Center for Public Opinion Research and DC-AAPOR: eventbrite.com/e/a-first-look… Eventbrite Help

NEW: How much is the Alexander family worth? Sex trafficking charges against Alexander brothers may put assets at risk, w/⁦Jay Weaver⁩ & ⁦Shirsho Dasgupta⁩ miamiherald.com/news/local/com…

41 percent of Americans favor ending birthright citizenship in our latest New York Times poll. But a majority - 55% - oppose it.

Democrats aren't popular. What should they do about it? w/ Ruth Igielnik & Lenny Bronner podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fiv…

Just a reminder that all the data FiveThirtyEight collected—polls, election results, and much more—is available for download (for now) on our GitHub page. github.com/fivethirtyeight

Excellent poll questions to illuminate comfort with levels of deportation. Most Americans want to deport all or some immigrants in the US illegally. But that squishy 50% who say "some " -- they're mostly focused on people who have committed crimes or arrived in the last 4 years

Voters believe Trump is overreaching with his aggressive efforts to expand executive power, and they have deep doubts about some of the signature pieces of his agenda, a The New York Times SienaResearch poll found. Shane Goldmacher Ruth Igielnik @camillebaker nytimes.com/2025/04/25/us/…