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"The war in Ukraine has left a group of 'in-between' European countries more vulnerable and insecure than ever before." In a new must-read paper, Thomas de Waal, Dimitar Bechev, & Maksim Samorukov examine how 🇷🇺 seeks to increase its influence in these countries. carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/…

On Russia's "niche" in #Bosnia. Its problems weren't caused by Russia but its dysfunction, esp. the powers used and abused by Republika Srpska, provides Russia with opportunities to cause trouble. Dimitar Bechev 's paper in our "Arc of Instability" series carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/…

💬 "Le régime de Poutine est en permanence au bord de l’effondrement" Pour le Maksim Samorukov, le régime russe est bien plus vulnérable qu’on ne le pense ⬇️ lexpress.fr/idees-et-debat…

Serbia turned out to have provided Ukraine with more military assistance than most NATO states. But no criticism from Russia followed. For Balkan Insight I explain how Vucic secured this level of Kremlin’s tolerance balkaninsight.com/2024/07/08/why…

🎙️📢‼️ With elections in Moldova around the corner, what's at stake, and how is Russia trying to exert its influence? Listen to the newest episode of Carnegie Politika podcast with great Paula Erizanu and my Carnegie Endowment colleague Maksim Samorukov. youtube.com/watch?v=AVqI6E…

Betting on Shor, Russia repeats its old strategy of building influence through oligarchs as in Ukraine, Georgia, etc. But in today’s Moldova it promises little but another failure. I examine faults in Ru’s approach for Foreign Policy foreignpolicy-com.ceip.idm.oclc.org/2024/10/16/mol…

1 A close call in #Moldova on the referendum and first round of the pres. election reveals the country’s problems, current and structural: historic polarization, vulnerability to influence of oligarchs and Moscow, poverty, demographic crisis. bbc.co.uk/news/articles/…

Why would Russia punish Vucic with accusations of betrayal right after he went to such lengths to attend May 9 parade in Moscow? Because it wasn't a punishment, but perhaps an expression of gratitude, as I explain for Balkan Insight balkaninsight.com/2025/06/03/has…

1/ Russia's war in Ukraine has put Belarus back on the geopolitical map. But the EU is still stuck in 2020—treating Belarus as a moral cause, not a strategic challenge. New Carnegie Russia Eurasia piece here ⬇️ carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia…

1/ General Kellogg is visiting Minsk—and I just wrote a backgrounder on Belarus. No, it isn’t about “pulling” Belarus from Moscow’s orbit. Washington knows that’s neither realistic nor necessarily desirable. 🧵