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Thanks for the kind words Today's settlement data (+25b for June) added to the body of evidence pointing to renewed Chinese intervention to hold the CNY down

Just a reminder that the end result of the Trump term 1 trade war with China -- which produced hours of debate, tons of digital ink (including a lot of great reporting), at least one book -- was a roughly 15% average increase in the tariff on China (v pre-tariff trade) 1/

Turns out that there was indeed a disturbance in the force -- the global balance of payments that is -- back when China changed its balance of payments methodology in 21/22 ... (see the black line in first figure in the first box in the IMF's ESR) 1/

American consumers buying European goods will be punished because of US pharmaceutical companies tax avoidance strategies. Sad.

Public debt is inextricably linked to Europe’s security. Germany can be generous with its support for Ukraine because it has low debt. Italy, France and Spain can’t give much because they’re over-indebted. Public debt is at the root of European insecurity. on.ft.com/3Up4Ng2

Ex-traders Tom Hayes and Carlo Palombo Found guilty of LIBOR benchmark interest rate rigging and jailed Have had their convictions quashed at the Supreme Court Due to judge's misdirection despite ample evidence to convict Serious Fraud Office (SFO) - No retrial #OOTT ground.news/article/suprem…

De-escalation with China and the spate of recent trade deals, including a rumored deal with the EU, mean the bulk of the US trade deficit is now covered by trade deals. There's obviously lots of deals still to be negotiated, but those don't really matter. robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-end-of-t…

Could super rich be squeezed more to fill Reeves's black hole? No Top 25% UK earners pay 75%+ UK tax ❗️🇬🇧16,500 millionaires to quit UK in 2025. 10,800 left in 2024 ℹ️Henley & Partners ❗️🇬🇧UK high earners fleeing UK for: Dubai🇦🇪 🇮🇹 🇵🇹 🇬🇷 Sky News #OOTT news.sky.com/video/could-th…

The global trade war is ending. Today's global flash PMIs for Jul. '25 show the inflationary impulse from tariffs on the US is also ending. Upward pressure on output (blue line, top left) & input (red line, top left) prices is fading. No sign of supply chain disruptions anywhere.

🚨 NEW | Reform lead by 14pts ➡️ REF – 34% (+4) 🔴 LAB – 20% (-) 🔵 CON – 16% (-1) 🟠 LD – 14% (+1) 🟢 GRN – 10% (-2) Via @findoutnowUK, 23 Jul (+/- vs 16 Jul)

❗️🇬🇧Record number of UK farms forced to close this year after #Labour’s #Reeves’s tax raid made rural firms unviable 6,365 UK agriculture, forestry & fishing firms closed in past year Office for National Statistics (ONS) Highest since first quarterly data in 2017 👀🇬🇧Labour Chaos #OOTT telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/…

US flows inevitable US rejected Pillar 2 rules re EU🇪🇺-led OECD ➡️ Better Policies for Better Lives/#G20 BEPS = 15% Min. Global Corp. Tax US fix: US parented firms exempt from Global Min. 15% Corporation Tax for Multinationals 👀US🇺🇸: Global Competitive Tax Benefit Robin Brooks #OOTT home.treasury.gov/news/press-rel…

US exceptionalism isn't over Foreign flows into Treasuries and US stocks roared back in May After small outflows in April Suggests fall in $USD occurred on narrow liquidity Markets still believe in US outperformance Robin Brooks robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/us-exception… #OOTT

If markets really worried about Fed independence You'd expect short-term rate differential of US vs G10 (black) to fall as markets price more politically-driven rate cuts While longer-term differentials like 10y10y forward should rise NO sign of that... Robin Brooks #OOTT

July 24, 2025 Treasury Department #OFAC #sanctions North Korea🇰🇵🏢 Korea Sobaeksu Trading 3 🇰🇵👤 Kim Se Un Jo Kyong Hun Myong Chol Min For US🇺🇸 & United Nations sanctions evasion, 🇰🇵 funding via fraudulent IT worker schemes With: U.S. Department of Justice Homeland Security Department of State FBI #OOTT home.treasury.gov/news/press-rel…

Brian Assi "Brahim Assi", Lebanon🇱🇧 44 months jail for: Violating US IEEPA & ITSR USA🇺🇸-Iran🇮🇷 exports of US drill rigs without Treasury Department #OFAC license Smuggling goods from US False/misleading info Money laundering U.S. Department of Justice #OOTT 👀US #sanctions justice.gov/opa/pr/foreign…

Images of Trump & Fed Chair Powell bickering in hard hats shocking If ever there was a time when markets should have priced a Trump risk premium, this was it But they didn't Markets see this as political theatre and move on Robin Brooks robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/president-tr… #OOTT

July 25, 2025 Treasury Department #OFAC #sanctions Cartel de los Soles as Specially Designated Global Terrorist Venezuela🇻🇪-based criminal group led by Maduro & top 🇻🇪 govt officials Supports foreign terrorist organizations Tren de Aragua & Sinaloa Cartel #OOTT home.treasury.gov/news/press-rel…

🇺🇸🇪🇺EU had no leverage over Trump EU has not stopped Greek ship owners from selling oil tankers to Russia EU has not shut down Russia's Shadow Fleet EU has undermined itself - had to make a deal with US Robin Brooks robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-eu-bows-… 👀US held all the cards #OOTT

$USD in big rise Drivers: 1 EU🇪🇺-🇺🇸US trade deal a reminder that EU is supplicant, not master... - After EU dropped the ball on Ukraine🇺🇦 2 #Tariffs are US$-positive - The fact that tariffs drove USD down was always an anomaly US Dollar has based... Robin Brooks #OOTT