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The crisis of American democracy is here: youtu.be/SNlsql_N2Fg

Nesse final de semana haverá eleições na Alemanha. Eu preparei essa thread sobre a Alternativa para a Alemanha, para que, daqui a um tempo, você não seja pego de surpresa sobre quem manda na AfD:

Opinião - Marcos Mendes: Ministro da Fazenda mina o sistema de metas de inflação www1.folha.uol.com.br/colunas/marcos…

Marianna Mazzucato's paper on supermultipliers of government funding of science does not hold. New paper in Research Policy shows that it holds because of the choice of data transformation and the time period studied. Cointegration issues are everywhere apparently (link below)

O governo Lula já admite rediscutir a contabilização dos precatórios no Orçamento. 2027 está logo ali. Manchete de hoje do Valor com Lu Aiko Otta e comentários de Felipe Salto, Élida Graziane, Sergio Vale e Jeferson Bittencourt valor.globo.com/brasil/noticia…

Understanding causality vs. correlation is genuinely hard especially on complex topics like inflation. Our research finds that 60% of Americans think high interest rates cause high inflation & support rate cuts to fight it. But high rates usually respond to inflation,not cause it

𝗣𝗼𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗜𝗻𝘀𝘁𝗶𝘁𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 For political scientists, the just-out 𝘏𝘢𝘯𝘥𝘣𝘰𝘰𝘬 𝘰𝘧 𝘕𝘦𝘸 𝘐𝘯𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘵𝘶𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘌𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘰𝘮𝘪𝘤𝘴 has some good chapters specifically focused on political institutions. Open access: link.springer.com/referencework/…

1/ New resource: The Global Currencies Database: globalcurrenciesdatabase.com

The Saudi balance of payments for q4 is out, and it confirms that Saudi Arabia ran a current account deficit in 2024 -- and (per my estimates), the balance of payments "breakeven" for Saudi Arabia is around $90 a barrel. 1/

Where do tariff rates stand *right now*? US tariffs on exports from China are around 42%. US tariffs on exports from the rest of the world are almost 4%. #PIIECharts Learn more: piie.com/research/piie-…

Artigo com coautores quantificando a despesa do Governo Federal gerada por ações judiciais. A conta é bem maior que a despesa com precatórios. O custo total anual está em torno de 2,5% do PIB. repositorio.insper.edu.br/entities/publi…

Na entrevista do dia, Denise Campos de Toledo conversa com Sérgio Vale, economista-chefe e sócio da MB Associados, sobre os equívocos e consequências do tarifaço de Trump.

Hoje 18h45 no Jornal da Gazeta consequências e equívocos do #tarifaço de #Trump Sergio Vale

New CEPR Discussion Paper - DP20104 The U.S. Trade Deficit: Myths and Realities Maurice Obstfeld Peterson Institute UC Berkeley ow.ly/iYso50VvKIo #CEPR_IMF #CEPR_MEF #EconTwitter

calling gary cohn…

Martin Wolf: Five books to boost your understanding of tariffs and trade wars on.ft.com/4lpIx1I

A personal assessment of the evolution of macroeconomic research over the last 40 years (informed by the opinions of many of the main researchers in the field). shorturl.at/V7vkJ Conclusion: Strong convergence, mostly for the better. Not everything is perfect but,

A long long time ago, in a far away galaxy... the US used to tax the rich

This looks like a must-read! "The Great Trade Hack: How Trump’s Trade War Fails and the World Moves on" Richard Baldwin "The Great Trade Hack argues that Trump’s actions should not be thought of as trade policy. His goal was to “hack” the world trade system in the sense of a

We just updated our tariff paper. We now assign products to precise HS-10 codes—replacing the older COICOP-HS mapping—and extend the price data through June 12. Imported prices are up ~3% since early March, a modest increase given the scale of announced tariffs. Most of the