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Smart story by The Insider about Russia's fragile economy, debunking official claims inflation is under control. Food prices up 8% with staples like potatoes up 160%. This is hitting average consumers harder than many realize. theins.ru/en/economics/2…

Just finished this excellent book on the economic war waged against Russia by Stephanie Baker

Kid-gloves for Putin as he kills Ukrainian civilians: Asked if Putin should be at the G-7, Trump said: “I’m not saying he should at this point because too much water has gone over the dam, maybe, but it was a big mistake” to remove Russia in the past from the security alliance.

Good to see new UK sanctions on Russia, including 20 oil tankers, but I do wonder why GUGI, Russia's military directorate for fielding covert submarines, ships and undersea drones, wasn't sanctioned in Feb. 2022. gov.uk/government/new…

Russia warns Trump not to join the war against Iran, but looks unwilling and unable to help Tehran militarily, preferring to keep weapons stockpiles for its war against Ukraine. reuters.com/world/middle-e…

Putin’s top economic officials openly argued over the state of Russia’s economy, with one government minister issuing his starkest warning yet that the country may be teetering on the edge of a recession bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

TACO Trump strikes again. 2 weeks to impose sanctions on Russia = nothing. 2 weeks to attack Iran, giving them time to move material, also likely means he'll do nothing. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Very disappointing and shows how much damage Trump is doing to the Russia sanctions coalition ➡️The EU shelved a plan for a stricter price cap on Russian oil exports over concerns that the US won’t back tougher sanctions due to rising crude prices bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Doublespeak alert: Putin denounces “absolutely unprovoked aggression” against Iran, just after nine people were killed in Kyiv in a totally unprovoked drone and missile strike bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

A Russian attack on NATO would cost the world $1.5 trillion. Not beyond the realm of possibility with Putin saying “wherever the Russian soldier treads is ours.” bloomberg.com/graphics/2025-… via @bbgvisualdata

Heads up: I'll be moderating this phenomenal panel on US-Asia rivalry Frontline Club on 1 July w/ Isabel Hilton Stephanie Baker and Vincent Ni. Join us! More info and register⬇️ eventbrite.co.uk/e/panel-discus… Eventbrite Help

Russia faces a credible risk of a systemic banking crisis in the next 12 months. Banks have estimated that their bad debts run to trillions of rubles and are taking steps to manage the increased risk leading to early signs of a credit crunch bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

What an engaging and lively night Frontline Club, talking about US, China, Asia, and trade/Trump/tariffs and *a lot* more. Hugely grateful to Isabel Hilton Stephanie Baker and Vincent Ni for sharing their timely insights in front of an active and enquiring audience.

The Pentagon is giving Putin what he wants by halting military aid to Ukraine. Putin is even more unlikely to negotiate. nbcnews.com/politics/natio…

The Dutch secret service warn that Russia is intensifying its use of banned chemical weapons in Ukraine. aivd.nl/actueel/nieuws…

Trump says he’ll send more defensive weapons to Ukraine — a reversal just after the Pentagon halted shipments. Still no new sanctions on Russia, even as he insists he’s “not happy” with Putin. Not even willing to talk tough. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Trump finally realising he’s been played: “We get a lot of bullshit thrown at us by Putin, [if] you want to know the truth,” Trump said. “He’s very nice all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless.” politico.com/news/2025/07/0…

I will be on BBC news channel at 6pm UK time to talk about Trump’s tariff announcement on Russia.

Great to be on BBC News (UK) BBC News (World) with Maryam Moshiri this week to talk about Trump’s threat of tariffs to bring Putin to the negotiating table. More tariff political theater when there are sanctions he could impose right now.