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Celebrated statistician and data journalist Nate Silver makes a flawed case for high-stakes gambling as a metaphor for international politics in On the Edge. Review by Jeffrey Mazo. go.iiss.org/Survival66-6

FEBRUARY–MARCH ISSUE OUT NOW! Read the latest analysis from Survival. go.iiss.org/3CZVG0e

Coming on top of Trump’s animosity towards NATO, the West’s inability to secure a satisfactory outcome in Ukraine could change Russia’s assessment of what Article 5 means. Analysis by François Heisbourg. go.iiss.org/4i1jU9S

Donald Trump emerged as a figure to be reckoned with by exploiting and encouraging a double revolt against the two main pillars of post-1945 foreign policy: economic globalisation and military interventionism. Analysis by John L. Harper. go.iiss.org/3CZVG0e

The ability of Syria’s new government to secure aid, maintain security and mitigate infighting will depend on outside stakeholders who have not yet decided whether the game is worth the candle. Analysis from Natasha Hall. go.iiss.org/3CZVG0e

The Republic of Ireland’s membership in NATO would diminish its strategic vulnerability to Russia, defuse attempts to revive unionism and preserve the Good Friday Agreement’s pathway to a united Ireland. Analysis by Jonathan Stevenson | FREE TO READ. go.iiss.org/41p1EjE

Reviving the European Defence Community would create a real European pillar within NATO, at once shielding Europe from the Russian threat and safeguarding the transatlantic partnership. Analysis by Federico Fabbrini. go.iiss.org/3CZVG0e

A major worry is that the economic benefits that Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto seeks to reap by strategically cosying up to China will come at the expense of fellow ASEAN members. Analysis by Evan A. Laksmana. go.iiss.org/3CZVG0e

Japan, South Korea and the United States should start planning more concretely for the worst-case scenario: China’s military invasion of Taiwan. Takuya Matsuda and Jaehan Park on security cooperation between the three allies. go.iiss.org/3CZVG0e

Listen to the latest episode of The Arms Control Poseur where Alex Bollfrass discusses the past and present of France’s nuclear trajectory with Héloïse Fayet, Emmanuelle Maitre and Liviu Horovitz. 🎧 Tune in now: go.iiss.org/41qAxoi

France’s nuclear strategy is more important than ever. Will France remain fully independent in its nuclear policy? This week, host Alex Bollfrass is joined by Héloïse Fayet, Emmanuelle Maitre and Liviu Horovitz. 🎧 Listen now: go.iiss.org/41qAxoi

🚀 France has always insisted on maintaining full nuclear independence. But with growing tensions in Europe and questions about US commitments, will France’s deterrent play a bigger role in European security? 🎧 Listen to the full discussion here: go.iiss.org/41qAxoi

While dubbing the Baltic Sea a ‘NATO lake’ remains unwarranted, the addition of Finland and Sweden to the Alliance substantially diminishes Russia’s ability to deny NATO access. Victor Duenow on NATO’s new members and strategic balance in the Baltic. go.iiss.org/3CZVG0e

As the only nuclear power in the European Union, France faces increasing support to expand its nuclear role in European security. Listen to Alex Bollfrass discuss France’s nuclear trajectory with Héloïse Fayet, Emmanuelle Maitre, Liviu Horovitz. 🎧 Tune in now: go.iiss.org/41qAxoi

Financial developments appear to be increasing American leverage over Europe even as the United States’ commitment to Europe wanes. Analysis by Elmar Hellendoorn. go.iiss.org/3CZVG0e

European governments must invest jointly in conventional deterrence and defence assets while building cooperative clusters around the French and British nuclear hubs. Find out more. go.iiss.org/3CZVG0e

It can take a serious shock to eliminate perceptual lags. For American liberals, Israel has now delivered one by way of the Gaza war. Steven Simon on American liberals’ perceptions of Isreal. go.iiss.org/3CZVG0e

States that excel in the development and implementation of digital-engineering techniques are likely to enjoy a significant strategic edge in the Fourth Industrial Revolution over those that do not. Analysis from Dennis Murphy and Lawrence Rubin. go.iiss.org/3CZVG0e

In her book, Digital Empires, Anu Bradford illuminates how conflicts between the EU and the US over technology could distract them from China’s competing and advancing technologies and regulatory concepts. Review by Paul Fraioli. go.iiss.org/3CZVG0e