Flagging this piece by Evan Greenberg, which interrogates arguments around new Cold War thinking and suggests Washington would do better in outcompeting China by strengthening deterrence, investing in alliances, and reviving leadership on trade. foreignpolicy.com/2024/09/24/us-…

What is China’s global influence? Our team China Data Lab derived a series of economic, geopolitical, and diplomatic indicators. Surprisingly China’s influence has not made gains across the board chinadatalab.ucsd.edu/viz-blog/china…

This memo on optimizing U.S. policy toward China reflects key insights from extensive discussions among of The Task Force on U.S.-China Policy Asia Society, but does not represent a formal consensus. It is compiled by @susanshirk1 and rick waters. ow.ly/Jlee50VcPwT

The destruction of DOD’s Office Net Assessment is an enormous mistake. This was a little-known but enormously consequential fifty year-old institution that actually thought long-term. It helped us win the Cold War, grasped the China challenge early, and figured out revolutions

Once an Economy Switches from Rules to Deals, It’s Hard to Go Back bloomberg.com/news/articles/… / great piece by Campante and Fisman on the enormous costs of abandoning a rule-based econ system

BREAKING: Over 2 million Turkish people hold a massive protest rally in Istanbul to demand that Erdogan resigns after the arrest and detention of Ekrem İmamoğlu, the mayor of Istanbul and a prominent opposition figure The world wants no dictators.

These latest edicts are insane. In the face of dangerous climate change, Trump goes out of his way to push coal & attack the states reducing carbon pollution. The people won’t stand for this. Trump will fail.

There is little chance we will see a Trump-Xi call anytime soon. This has implications beyond trade - the longer the two sides go without channels, the more miscalculation risks grow.

Full article: China’s New Economic Weapons tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…

SCOOP - #XiJinping purges #2 PLA general #HeWeidong, Central Military Commission vice-chair & Politburo member #USChinaScoop on.ft.com/3R9VTl5

As Demetri reports, current CMC Vice Chairman, He Weidong (何卫东), was arrested over the last few weeks. Demetri consulted with 5 people familiar with the situation, including current and former US officials, so I believe the authoritativeness of his reporting. A long 🧵 on why

Many US exports to China replaceable from other sources quickly. Much of what US imports from China is not since it involves industrial inputs (which can’t be swapped out like soy beans).

We have done well to avoid a serious military clash in the SCS so far but how long can we remain in this standoff with a major incident? China seizes disputed reef in the South China Sea ft.com/content/ae6acb… via @ft

This is the real “China shock.” China’s exports became much more competitive after joining the WTO. China lowered its own tariffs, causing a surge in its imports of intermediate inputs. The technology & quality “embedded” in these imports made China’s exports more competitive.

open.substack.com/pub/alexsalvin…

My Op Ed with Professor James Heckman Prof. James Heckman wsj.com/opinion/the-re…

Several US automakers are considering moving some auto parts manufacturing to China to get around China’s export controls on rare earth magnets, according to The Wall Street Journal. To state the obvious, this is exactly the opposite of what Trump’s tariffs were aiming to do. WSJ: Automakers Race

The addition of Lutnick to the U.S. negotiating team, in addition to Bessent and Greer, suggests that Beijing is getting a desired channel of communication with the cabinet member overseeing export controls. With ⁦Alex Leary⁩ ⁦Alex Ward⁩ wsj.com/world/china/tr…

Grateful to Tom Kellogg and team in drafting "Petition Against Visa Restrictions on Chinese Students" now signed by over 700 scholars, including me. Students from China and other countries contribute greatly to innovation and ultimately productivity here medium.com/@lawasia/petit…

A downside of China’s promotion tournament is local protectionism, as reflected in the local governments’ allocation of procurement contracts and equity investments. Just in Print at Journal of Public Economics, with Ming Li (CUhK Shenzhen) and Zenan Wu (Peking University).