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It's not every day you see oil prices trading -8% lower. Oil markets are pricing-in a recession and OPEC is hiking production into it. That's one way to get inflation down...

Oil prices are now down -14% in 2 days as China has announced 34% reciprocal tariffs on the U.S. The trade war has become worse for markets than the worst case scenario heading into April 2nd. Still not seeing capitulation.

The real plan all along was to lower interest rates and lower oil prices as soon as possible. The 10-year note yield is down -90 bps and oil prices are down -25%. The tariffs are "working" as planned.

The risk of a credit event happening in the US has risen to 2023 Regional Bank Crisis levels. Markets believe a credit event is near.

What we're watching: Amid all the chaos, the 10-year note yield has moved in a straight line higher, now up +30 bps from its low of the day. Bond markets are telling us something.

Talk about a shift in sentiment: The 10-year note yield now pushing above 4.20% while the S&P 500 falls -4.5% in 3 hours. Yields are ABOVE levels seen before "Liberation Day." Once again, bond markets are telling us something.

The rush to the exit: Asset selloffs are defying historical correlations, coming with drops in stocks, gold, bonds, and oil prices, all at the same time. It's not often you see a market where ALL assets are liquidated simultaneously. Everyone wants cash, yet so many are

The collapse of bond prices amid a tariff-induced recession will be studied for years to come. Higher rates combined with GDP contraction is a lethal combination.

Something is breaking as we speak: The 10-year note yield just extended its 3-day rally to +15% and broke above 4.50% for the first time since February 20th. Last time yields were this high? The S&P 500 was +1,200 points higher than it is now. Something doesn't add up here.

The bond market just BROKE: In just 3 days, the 10Y Note Yield surged 60 basis points while the S&P 500 fell -8%. This marks the LARGEST 3-day increase since 1982 and one of the largest divergences in history. What happened? The basis trade broke. (a thread)

After a brief intermission: We’re back on track for 8% mortgages and a recession. The real “trade war” is Trump versus the bond market.

The weekend began with new “tariff exemptions” on electronics and semiconductors. This quickly transitioned to temporary exemptions before more tariffs. Which then became a reclassification of tariffs, from “reciprocal tariffs” to “sectoral tariffs.” The result will be a

We are witnessing a highly uncommon phenomenon in financial markets: Both bullish and bearish participants find themselves uncomfortable amid prevailing conditions. An over-reliance on tariff-related headlines has created a fragile market environment, where both sides are

What we're watching: Selling pressure is still "orderly" here, with the Volatility Index, $VIX, at a modest ~35. We are not seeing capitulation yet.

I will be joining the great Charles Payne, Charles V Payne, in studio today LIVE on Fox Business at 2:15 PM ET. Will be discussing markets, tariffs, and the journey of building The Kobeissi Letter. Tune in to hear my outlook during these volatile times. Watch LIVE at 2:15 PM ET!

I will be joining CNBC at 4:00 PM ET to give The Kobeissi Letter's outlook after another busy week. Trade deals, jobs data, and next week's Fed meeting are all in the spotlight. All while the S&P 500 is set for its first 9-day win streak in 20 years. Tune in LIVE to hear more!

It's a great day in Miami! I’m in Miami to speak at Grant Cardone’s Wealth Conference at 11 AM ET today. Conference attendees will hear about my views on the macroeconomy and some unique The Kobeissi Letter insights. Looking forward to meeting as many of you as possible!

Looking forward to joining Charles Payne, Charles V Payne, in studio today at 2:35 PM ET on Fox Business. Will be discussing The Kobeissi Letter's outlook into the June Fed meeting and beyond. Markets are now less than 2% away from a new all time high. Tune in LIVE at 2:35 PM ET!

I will be joining Charles Payne, Charles V Payne, in studio today at 2:35 PM ET on Fox Business. Looking forward to providing The Kobeissi Letter's outlook on stocks and commodities. Our view of the S&P 500 hitting a record came to fruition, but what's next? Tune in LIVE at 2:35 PM ET!