Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@tavicosta) 's Twitter Profile
Otavio (Tavi) Costa

@tavicosta

Crescat Capital macro strategist. Native of Sao Paulo, Brazil 🇧instagram.com/tavicostamacro

ID: 2584103654

linkhttp://crescat.net/disclosures calendar_today23-06-2014 14:35:18

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Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@tavicosta) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Despite the recent rebound in stocks: The relative performance of small-cap stocks is nearing new lows, revisiting levels not seen since the peak of the tech bubble.

Despite the recent rebound in stocks:

The relative performance of small-cap stocks is nearing new lows, revisiting levels not seen since the peak of the tech bubble.
Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@tavicosta) 's Twitter Profile Photo

The gold-to-silver ratio is now breaking down as silver accelerates and begins to catch up with gold. Just a month ago, investors were telling me this time was different — that the ratio wouldn’t revert and we were witnessing a structural shift. But notice the trend.

The gold-to-silver ratio is now breaking down as silver accelerates and begins to catch up with gold.

Just a month ago, investors were telling me this time was different — that the ratio wouldn’t revert and we were witnessing a structural shift.

But notice the trend.
Roberto Motta (@_robertomotta) 's Twitter Profile Photo

nessa quinta vou ter a honra o privilégio de receber no Resumo da Manhã o Tavi Costa é gestor da Crecast de Denver, o Tavi foi um dos primeiros a falar sobre compra de ouro desde 2022 (ou antes), e tbem na tese que eu acho a mais importante atualmente , que é a da rotação com

nessa quinta vou ter a honra o privilégio de receber no Resumo da Manhã o Tavi Costa é gestor da Crecast de Denver, o Tavi foi um dos primeiros a falar sobre compra de ouro desde 2022 (ou antes), e tbem na tese que eu acho a mais importante atualmente , que é a da rotação com
Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@tavicosta) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Global equity markets are currently experiencing their second most expensive year in history based on the market cap-to-GDP ratio. The only time valuations were higher was in 2021, at the peak of the market. Today, this metric sits 7 percentage points above the levels seen at

Global equity markets are currently experiencing their second most expensive year in history based on the market cap-to-GDP ratio.

The only time valuations were higher was in 2021, at the peak of the market.

Today, this metric sits 7 percentage points above the levels seen at
Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@tavicosta) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Most investors will tell you these markets are unique, but I would strongly argue they all hold hands very tightly. The same way gold stocks just recently made 14-year highs, I believe Brazilian equities are poised to do the same. A resource-rich economy, currently trading at

Most investors will tell you these markets are unique, but I would strongly argue they all hold hands very tightly.

The same way gold stocks just recently made 14-year highs, I believe Brazilian equities are poised to do the same.

A resource-rich economy, currently trading at
Ronnie Stoeferle (@ronstoeferle) 's Twitter Profile Photo

If US gold reserves today covered as much of the national debt as they did in 1971, gold would have to hit $23,000/oz! Check out this eye-opening chart (credit to my buddy Otavio (Tavi) Costa) Is a gold-backed dollar a relic of the past, or the comeback of the decade? 🥇💸 Find out

If US gold reserves today covered as much of the national debt as they did in 1971, gold would have to hit $23,000/oz!

Check out this eye-opening chart (credit to my buddy <a href="/TaviCosta/">Otavio (Tavi) Costa</a>)

Is a gold-backed dollar a relic of the past, or the comeback of the decade? 🥇💸

Find out
Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@tavicosta) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Nice to see PTJ have similar views on this. The front end of the curve needs to be substantially lower in my view. youtube.com/watch?v=jFPKJg…

Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@tavicosta) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Meanwhile: The downward turn of the US dollar continues to unfold right before our eyes, almost on a daily basis. It feels like every day, someone new and influential is sounding the alarm in their own way. Today, it was Paul Tudor Jones. Some thought I was crazy for being

Meanwhile:

The downward turn of the US dollar continues to unfold right before our eyes, almost on a daily basis.

It feels like every day, someone new and influential is sounding the alarm in their own way.

Today, it was Paul Tudor Jones.

Some thought I was crazy for being
Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@tavicosta) 's Twitter Profile Photo

After a historic breakout in the British pound, euro, and yen: The Canadian dollar now appears poised for a major move, in my view. Keep in mind that, according to CFTC data, the currency remains heavily shorted by speculators.

After a historic breakout in the British pound, euro, and yen:

The Canadian dollar now appears poised for a major move, in my view.

Keep in mind that, according to CFTC data, the currency remains heavily shorted by speculators.
Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@tavicosta) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Commodities are now up 17% this year. Geopolitical conflicts intensifying. Fiscal deficits worsening. Inflation re-accelerating. Interest rates in desperate need of suppression. Central banks accumulating gold at unprecedented levels. None of us own enough hard assets, in my

Commodities are now up 17% this year.

Geopolitical conflicts intensifying.
Fiscal deficits worsening.
Inflation re-accelerating.
Interest rates in desperate need of suppression.
Central banks accumulating gold at unprecedented levels.

None of us own enough hard assets, in my
Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@tavicosta) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Oil now surging for geopolitical reasons, but this is an important reminder for the following: Sometimes, you can have the full foundation of a thesis in place, yet the catalyst that sets it in motion often remains unclear until it happens. That’s likely the case with the

Oil now surging for geopolitical reasons, but this is an important reminder for the following:

Sometimes, you can have the full foundation of a thesis in place, yet the catalyst that sets it in motion often remains unclear until it happens.

That’s likely the case with the
In Gold We Trust (@igwtreport) 's Twitter Profile Photo

3/5 🥱 On the flip side, not every sector has attracted investors’ attention. 📉 The next chart by Otavio (Tavi) Costa shows that mining companies have never been so undervalued relative to the broad stock market! #MiningStocks #MeanReversion

3/5 🥱 On the flip side, not every sector has attracted investors’ attention.

📉 The next chart by <a href="/TaviCosta/">Otavio (Tavi) Costa</a> shows that mining companies have never been so undervalued relative to the broad stock market!
#MiningStocks #MeanReversion
Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@tavicosta) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Oops, I know no one cares, but the Canadian dollar is breaking out as we speak. This is likely the beginning of a broader move, in my view. CAD-denominated assets stand to benefit significantly from this shift. And yes, that should include the majority of mining companies.

Oops, I know no one cares, but the Canadian dollar is breaking out as we speak.

This is likely the beginning of a broader move, in my view.

CAD-denominated assets stand to benefit significantly from this shift.

And yes, that should include the majority of mining companies.
Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@tavicosta) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Brazilian equities are making a notable move today fueled by growing momentum behind Tarcísio. While the media will focus on the political angle, what many forget is that, at the end of the day, it’s all about the US dollar. We have likely entered a period where suppressing US

Brazilian equities are making a notable move today fueled by growing momentum behind TarcĂ­sio.

While the media will focus on the political angle, what many forget is that, at the end of the day, it’s all about the US dollar.

We have likely entered a period where suppressing US
Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@tavicosta) 's Twitter Profile Photo

This strong connection between the US dollar and the gold-to-silver ratio is both fascinating and intuitively logical. Both are likely to fall substantially in the following years in my view.

This strong connection between the US dollar and the gold-to-silver ratio is both fascinating and intuitively logical.

Both are likely to fall substantially in the following years in my view.