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The trade war and #tariffs could push UK #inflation up or down, as strong forces act in both directions. Interestingly, #markets at the moment require a _lower_ compensation for medium-term inflation than at the beginning of 2025. #dataisbeautiful

According to the Financial Times, lower #energy costs are to be a centerpiece of the forthcoming #industrial #strategy. Yet, there are very few UK sectors, let alone large sectors or "industrial strategy" focus sectors, for which energy costs are a big proportion of their total sales.

Most of the impact of US #tariffs on the UK economy will be indirect. Only 14% of businesses expect direct effects, but 25% are not sure. Those impacted mostly expect a reduction in demand and having to put up prices. #dataisbeautiful

Striking new research from McKinsey Global Institute on "the power of one": how #productivity growth is disproportionately driven by a small handful of companies. For the UK sample, <1% of firms contributed 45% of positive productivity growth. #dataisbeautiful Read the report

Super-interesting analysis from the Bank of England on non-linearities in the drivers of #inflation (as identified by an #ML model). The potentially sharp tipping points might keep policy makers awake at night. #dataisbeautiful BoE article here: bit.ly/45kCqWZ

Are you looking for an opportunity to have great impact, with passionate and stellar colleagues, and a highly meaningful mission? We are recruiting two new Trustees to join the brilliant Board at PBE (previously known as Pro Bono Economics). Please share! linkedin.com/jobs/view/4239…

Fascinating article by colleagues at McKinsey on #industrial #strategy. Globally, government subsidies, investment incentives, and other industrial-policy actions have almost quadrupled since 2017. Interventions are targeted on 'usual suspects' sectors, but increasingly on

UK workers have to make do with a third less #capital than their counterparts in higher #productivity peer countries. In absolute terms, the UK's capital gap is £2 trillion. #dataisbeautiful Link to paper: bit.ly/455vGwe Link to blog: bit.ly/43INafC

Dear Office for National Statistics (ONS), Please do not publish "real" or chained volume measures data without specifying which year's prices they are presented in. As a user, I don't have time to start looking through spreadsheets or methodology documents. Kind regards, User of Statistics.

I read *a lot* of scientific abstracts that are missing key elements. Here are the 5 things an abstract needs: 1. Introduce the topic, 2. State the unknown, 3. Outline the method used to answer the question, 4. Preview the findings, and 5. Tell us what your work teaches us.

You are probably tired of hearing how much #uncertainty has increased. Certainly, indices that measure this have spiked, especially for #trade uncertainty. The more general measure has, interestingly, not risen nearly as much for the UK as it has globally. #dataisbeautiful

While I find the government's announcement to boost R&D funding somewhat confusing, it's clearly the case that part of the UK's #capital #gap is due to lower investment in R&D. As a country, we have invested less in R&D than peers, across most sectors. #dataisbeautiful

Let's put the much-mentioned £113 billion of "extra" capital expenditure into context. Welcome as it is, it is a) relative to previous government's plans, and b) over the Spending Review period. Actual annual capital uplift, in real terms, relative to 2024-25, is about £22

Confused about what actually happened in the #SpendingReview2025? For me, this chart is the clearest way to get a handle on the magnitudes: 2028-29 vs. 2024-25 absolute (and %) changes, in real terms. [This is total, not just capital, because in reality, resource spending

UK's #GDP growth declined more (0.3%) than expected (0.1%) in April 2025. This was not just in manufacturing or retail, but also big business-services sectors, such as ICT (e.g., software) and professional services (e.g., legal, accounting, advertising). #dataisbeautiful

Enjoyed joining #WakeUpToMoney today with the fantastic Felicity Hannah, the insightful Gervais Williams and the impressive the Gbemi Okunola, on impact of oil prices, spending review, and geopolitics on the economy and busineesses. Listen here: bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0…

If there's one thing organisations need to understand about #AI and #productivity, it is encapsulated here. The time savings can be phenomenal - but only if you fully reinvent processes. Expect major disruption from those competitors who do! #dataisbeautiful Report: