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Recession risks are uncomfortably high. How high? Our newly developed machine learning model puts the probability of a recession starting in the next 12 months at 45%. It is good that the odds are less than even, but not that good, as closer to 15% would be consistent with a

This is happening.

Manhattanhenge again tonight!! Reminder do not look directly at the sun or New Jersey

DOGE and public opinion: As of April, many Americans were concerned that cuts to federal departments and agencies were too careless (59% said this), would make government less responsive (51%), and would cost Americans money in the long run (48%). pewresearch.org/politics/2025/…

Oh, boy. The MAHA Report Cites Studies That Don’t Exist notus.org/health-science…

Instant Reaction: Mortgage Rates, May 29, 2025 The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate from Freddie Mac rose to 6.89%, up from 6.86% last week. nar.realtor/blogs/economis…

BREAKING Appeals court restores Trump tariffs for now, after trade court blocks most -- from Ashley Murray | @ashleymurray.bsky.social for States Newsroom DC newsfromthestates.com/article/appeal…

After years of low supply, housing inventory is rising & leading to modest improvements in affordability. However, for more affordable homes for potential buyers, and for supply to match demand, sustained construction activity and job growth are necessary. nar.realtor/blogs/economis…

NAR’s latest forward-looking sales indicator shows contract signings fell 6.3% in April as buyers hold out for better conditions. #NARPHS nar.realtor/magazine/real-…

“When I wrote that story it just picked up momentum and got to the people it needed to get to. It allowed Clarksdale and its beauty and its magic to be plastered on a national stage.” Thank you Mississippi Free Press for interviewing me & amplifying Clarksdale! mississippifreepress.org/sinners-retrac…

My latest: last minute changes in the budget bill threaten to double Medicaid expansion costs in as many as 40 states stateline.org/2025/06/03/big…

From Stateline || bsky @stateline.org: The Republican budget bill the U.S. House approved last month includes a surprise for the 40 states that have expanded Medicaid: penalties for providing health care to some immigrants who are here legally. stateline.org/2025/06/03/big…

Illinois state Senator Graciela Guzman: Immigrants consider canceling chemotherapy, surgery after losing health coverage Graciela Guzman stateline.org/2025/06/03/big…

What a full circle moment — to be interviewed by the first publication I ever worked for about my continued commitment to Clarksdale and Mississippi. Thank you to Adam & Mississippi Today for taking a little time to talk to me. mississippitoday.org/2025/06/03/thi…

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is cutting back its collection of data on consumer prices, raising questions about the reliability of federal economic statistics under President Trump. nytimes.com/2025/06/04/bus…

Texas won’t force private companies to use E-Verify to check workers’ immigration status, despite leaders’ tough talk. bit.ly/45cJsgA

"According to NAR, the U.S. market needs 367,000 more home listings at a maximum price of $170,000, 416,000 more priced at or below $255,000 and 364,000 more priced under $340,000 to fix the existing affordability gap." newsweek.com/map-shows-wher…

Teachers are being priced out of the communities they serve. Our new analysis shows that in half of major urban districts, rent now eats up over 40% of a beginning teacher's salary. In my backyard of Boston, it's 43%. Even though school spending is up, districts are opting to

The 17 fired members of ACIP, including me, have written an article in JAMA about our experience and our concerns. jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/…

Census has announced the initial disclosure control plan for 2030. It doesn't look good. /1