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An end to Trump trade war is not in sight. "China does not feel compelled to rush to the negotiating table. Xi seems to believe that time is on his side — the longer this trade war drags on, the more desperate Trump will become for a deal." yahoo.com/news/why-trump…

President Trump is dropping in the polls. His reaction: "FAKE POLLS FROM FAKE NEWS ORGANIZATIONS" should be "investigated for ELECTION FRAUD." This is what can destroy democracy. axios.com/2025/04/28/tru…

This is what an empty shipping port looks like. It will eventually result in empty store shelves across our country. Which stores will depend on whether the store's suppliers built up inventories before Liberation Day. How soon will depend on how large the inventories are.

Is U.S. in a recession now? We will know when we get numbers for 2025Q2. NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee usually, but not always, calls a recession after two quarters of negative GDP growth. finance.yahoo.com/news/us-econom…

Ricardo V. Lago This volume, edited by Tim Kehoe 🇺🇸🇨🇦🇲🇽🇺🇦 and JuanPa Nicolini, is also a great reference. It reviews the economic history of 11 Latin America counties using a commons framework. Can be accessed for free (also it’s database): upress.umn.edu/9781517911362/…

The Economist: "Studies suggest that alcohol, deployed judiciously, can aid the creative process. [Research has] found that intoxicated people solved problems faster and 'were more likely to perceive their solutions as the result of a sudden insight.'" economist.com/finance-and-ec…

Critics are upset President Trump said, "I'm not a lawyer. I don't know" in response to whether migrants are entitled to due process when 5th Amendment says they are. I want to give Trump a break. He is clearly in cognitive decline, maybe Alzheimer's. yahoo.com/news/experts-t…

⁩Ph.D. Commencement at U of Minnesota: I am with Gabriel Devoto ⁦Gabriel Devoto and Mauricio Barbosa Alves ⁦⁦Mauricio Barbosa Alves, thesis advisees and members of Manuel Amador’s and my research workshop in international economics. Gabriel is going to the IMF and Mauricio to U of Kentucky.

Why have U.S. equity markets not fallen given uncertainty over tariffs? That uncertainty alone will probably cause recession. But bond markets come back to restore sanity. Yields are rising and prices falling. Let's see what Republicans do this weekend with crazy fiscal bill.

This was a great discussion. I always enjoy listening to Tim Kehoe 🇺🇸🇨🇦🇲🇽🇺🇦. I also enjoy arguing with Christopher Phelan! (and learn a lot from his counterpoints). So this was really a special treat!😀

I learnt much of my trade economics from Tim Kehoe 🇺🇸🇨🇦🇲🇽🇺🇦 . It's a great listen!

“Artificial Intelligence and Learning the Macroeconomy: Workshop in Honor of Albert Marcet,” BSE Summer Forum, 19-20 June 2025. ⁦Barcelona School of Economics⁩

Paco Buera presenting his work on Macro-Development, the first plenary session at the Annual Meeting of the Society for Economic Dynamics on the beautiful campus of the University of Copenhagen. SED Meeting

Per Krusell introducing Ayşegül Şahin to present her research on labor market dynamics in the second plenary session at the Annual Meeting of the Society for Economic Dynamics at beautiful University of Copenhagen.

Me parece admirable que México haya elegido a una mujer con educación como presidenta. Pero Sergio Negrete nos recuerda que Claudia Scheinbaum mordió la manzana de MORENA de AMLO, con todas las consecuencias negativas.