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Countries and labs are increasingly justifying risky AI development via the need to race. But this can be a harmful self fulfilling prophecy. This paper pushes back against this narrative

I think there are genuine concerns about uncareful use of LLMs in research (I say as someone who started getting AI-written peer reviews over a year ago); but skilled use => responses to flawed papers within a few days would be a real benefit to science. 1/3

New podcast episode with Toby Ord — on inference scaling, time horizons for AI agents, lessons from scientific moratoria, and more. pnc.st/s/forecast/53b…

This will be fascinating. tylercowen, Tom Davidson, Connor Leahy and Mike Webb debating AI in London on 1 July. Register below.

Excited to be participating in this expert debate about whether there will soon be an intelligence explosion. I expect the participants and the debate format will make for a great discussion!

New research note by Tom Davidson on how AI could transform the physical world

Great post about superintelligence-run robot economy doubling times: lesswrong.com/posts/Na2CBmNY…

Matches my experience A 2 week visit to the bay halves my estimated time to AGI and triples my p(doom)

Interested in how AI-accelerated tech can/will work? Read this: lesswrong.com/posts/Na2CBmNY… (I think it's been ~10 years since LessWrong had a steady source of well-reasoned content like this. More please!)

I think the idea of the "industrial explosion" is of similar importance as the idea of the intelligence explosion, and much less discussed. Really happy to see this analysis.

Nice to know the earth could support 100 trillion robots.

Seems a bit adversarial?

This seems wrong. Today the benefits of AI outweigh the harms. I agree it's very likely future AI development is reckless, and we need to prepare to stop. But I'm not seeing plausible routes to global catastrophes today