Troy Teslike (@troyteslike) 's Twitter Profile
Troy Teslike

@troyteslike

Tesla Delivery Estimates: Data-driven & free. Early access on Patreon.

My average error rate is 1.4% for Tesla's production and 3.0% for deliveries.

ID: 1002616999267262465

linkhttps://www.patreon.com/teslike/posts calendar_today01-06-2018 18:24:55

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Production at Tesla’s Fremont factory in California is down by 25% from its peak due to demand problems. Survey data (civicscience.com/how-consumer-o…) shows that buyers are moving away from the Tesla brand because they don’t want to be linked to the political controversy surrounding it.

Production at Tesla’s Fremont factory in California is down by 25% from its peak due to demand problems.

Survey data (civicscience.com/how-consumer-o…) shows that buyers are moving away from the Tesla brand because they don’t want to be linked to the political controversy surrounding it.
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Based on DMV VIN data, most of the Model Y produced at Tesla’s Fremont factory in Q1 2025 were the older design. The new Juniper refresh (shown in red on the chart) only began appearing late in the quarter. Each dot on the chart represents a Model Y vehicle identification number

Based on DMV VIN data, most of the Model Y produced at Tesla’s Fremont factory in Q1 2025 were the older design. The new Juniper refresh (shown in red on the chart) only began appearing late in the quarter.

Each dot on the chart represents a Model Y vehicle identification number
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Hi everyone. Analyst consensus for Tesla's full-year deliveries has dropped from 1.85M to 1.73M since my tweet below on March 29th. Here’s the latest: • My Estimate: Below 1.67M units • Analyst Consensus: 1.73M units • Tesla's Target for 2025: 1.79M units • 2024 Deliveries:

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Hi everyone. Here’s my detailed calculation for Tesla's Q1 2025 earnings: Non-GAAP EPS: • Analyst Consensus: $0.38 • My Estimate: $0.38 The last two columns show my estimate and the analyst consensus. We both arrived at the same EPS estimate, though some of the numbers,

Hi everyone. Here’s my detailed calculation for Tesla's Q1 2025 earnings:

Non-GAAP EPS:
• Analyst Consensus: $0.38
• My Estimate: $0.38

The last two columns show my estimate and the analyst consensus. We both arrived at the same EPS estimate, though some of the numbers,
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Analyst consensus for Tesla deliveries this year is now 1,731,000 units, lower than the 1,789,226 units delivered in 2024. Back in January, the consensus was over 2 million deliveries, but it has been steadily falling since then. Still, 1,731,000 seems too high based on how

Analyst consensus for Tesla deliveries this year is now 1,731,000 units, lower than the 1,789,226 units delivered in 2024.

Back in January, the consensus was over 2 million deliveries, but it has been steadily falling since then. Still, 1,731,000 seems too high based on how
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Sacrificing Profits for Unit Sales Tesla often responds to slowing demand with price cuts and promotional offers. As a result, vehicle deliveries in 2024 declined by just 1%, while automotive gross profit excluding regulatory credits dropped nearly 20%. I expect the same trend

Sacrificing Profits for Unit Sales

Tesla often responds to slowing demand with price cuts and promotional offers. As a result, vehicle deliveries in 2024 declined by just 1%, while automotive gross profit excluding regulatory credits dropped nearly 20%. I expect the same trend
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In the US, Tesla’s sales fell by 5.7% in 2024, while the overall passenger vehicle market grew by 2.8% and other battery electric vehicles (BEVs) increased by 27.4%. In Europe, Tesla’s sales dropped 10.7%, while the broader market and other BEVs posted modest growth. Cybertruck

In the US, Tesla’s sales fell by 5.7% in 2024, while the overall passenger vehicle market grew by 2.8% and other battery electric vehicles (BEVs) increased by 27.4%.

In Europe, Tesla’s sales dropped 10.7%, while the broader market and other BEVs posted modest growth.

Cybertruck
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Tesla's delivery performance in Q2 isn't looking great so far. The sales numbers from China and Europe aren’t promising. My full-year delivery estimate is now clearly below 1.7 million, which no longer seems achievable. I've also lowered my 2026 delivery estimate following news

Tesla's delivery performance in Q2 isn't looking great so far. The sales numbers from China and Europe aren’t promising. My full-year delivery estimate is now clearly below 1.7 million, which no longer seems achievable.

I've also lowered my 2026 delivery estimate following news
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What would be a good delivery result for Q2 2025? Tesla is currently 50,129 units behind last year after Q1. To close that gap over the remaining three quarters, they’d need to deliver 16,710 more units than last year in each quarter. Since Q2 2024 deliveries were 443,956 units,

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Hi everyone. Here’s the current Tesla delivery outlook based on the data so far: Q2 2025: Deliveries are expected to be between 350,000 and 395,000 units, down from 443,956 in Q2 2024. I’ll tweet my final estimate on June 30, two days before Tesla reports the official numbers.

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Tesla deliveries dropped just 1.1% in 2024. But this year, the decline is expected to be over 10%. Also, deliveries are expected to drop in all major regions, including North America, Europe, and China.

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Tesla sales in Europe are performing poorly. Based on the latest data, sales in the first half of 2025 are expected to be down about 35% compared to the same period last year. Sales are lower in nearly every country, except Norway and Spain. Norway will be about 1,700 units

Tesla sales in Europe are performing poorly. Based on the latest data, sales in the first half of 2025 are expected to be down about 35% compared to the same period last year.

Sales are lower in nearly every country, except Norway and Spain. Norway will be about 1,700 units
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Hi everyone. The numbers have changed since my tweet below. 1.6 million Tesla deliveries this year no longer look possible. The analyst consensus is still too high for now, but it’s expected to come down over the next 8 days. • My Estimate: Below 1.60M units • Analyst

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Based on the latest data, Tesla sales in Europe remain weak. The chart shows sales over the past few quarters, with Q1 2025 being very low, which Tesla blamed on the Model Y Juniper production changeover in March. However, Q2 shows no improvement over Q1.

Based on the latest data, Tesla sales in Europe remain weak. The chart shows sales over the past few quarters, with Q1 2025 being very low, which Tesla blamed on the Model Y Juniper production changeover in March. However, Q2 shows no improvement over Q1.
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The red line shows Tesla’s China sales this quarter based on weekly car insurance data. After 12 weeks, sales are lower than in Q1, when Tesla blamed the drop on the Model Y Juniper production changeover. Quarter-to-Date Sales (Weeks 1–12): • Q1 2025: 116,119 units • Q2 2025:

The red line shows Tesla’s China sales this quarter based on weekly car insurance data. After 12 weeks, sales are lower than in Q1, when Tesla blamed the drop on the Model Y Juniper production changeover.

Quarter-to-Date Sales (Weeks 1–12):
• Q1 2025: 116,119 units
• Q2 2025: