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Taiwan exports to US are surging whilst Taiwan imports from Mainland China are surging. Wonder what that means (backdoor channel). Asian exporters in full TACO mode $USD

⚠️ US continuing claims hit a fresh post-Covid high at 1965k. Whilst the velocity of layoffs isn't picking up, continuing claims creeping up may imply that it's getting harder to find a job $USD

EuroTaxing 🤓 $EUR

We’re going to see tariffs on Cole Palmer tomorrow aren’t we…

If Coach Trump can get Chelsea to win the Club World Cup, then fixing the US trade deficit should be a piece of cake in comparison 🤓

According to Adobe Digital Prices in June 2025… Computer prices down 10.7% YoY, Tous down -1.3% YoY and Electronics down -2.6% YoY. Doesn’t suggest tariffs are all that inflationary so far $USD

⚠️ The US labor market *is* cooling. Total job listings on Indeed hit their lowest level since February 2021 (as of July 4) $USD

⚠️ 5th consecutive negative surprise in US core CPI. 4th hottest June since 2001 on an NSA basis. Tariff inflation is showing up a bit. But importantly, inflation isn't picking up as much as markets/Fed feared. Breadth was high. But soft enough for Fed to think about cuts $USD

Key US data before the Fed cut 50bps last Sep: - 6M annualised core inflation: 2.73% - 6M average private payrolls: 99k Current (Jun-25): - 6M annualised core inflation: 2.68% - 6M average private payrolls: 107k Spot the difference $USD

⚠️ Hotter-than-expected UK CPI. But (i) ok breadth (only 46% of basket >2.5% annualised inflation); (ii) ok-ish core services & goods. Food inflation worrying. BoE still on track to cut given weak jobs market. Mkt a bit too excited about front-loaded cuts (slow-burner to 3%) $GBP

⚠️ If you're worried about inflation, this is your chart: Prices received in the NY Services survey just ticked up to their highest level since March 2023. Increase in manufacturing/goods prices might be spilling over into domestic prices (it's just one month but still) $USD

“Long-end yields seeing escape velocity” “Bond markets tumble on Finance Minister crying” “Top central bank official at risk of being ousted” Must be EM right. Nope, that’s Japan, UK & US in recent weeks. At this rate G10 & EM desks should merge. Difference is splitting hairs

Markets underestimating how logistically hard it is to fire Powell. First Powell has to bring 2 other FOMC officials back to the boardroom. Then they have to discuss whose fault it is that rates haven’t been cut. Then Trump speaks to his 2 advisors. And then someone gets fired 🤓

TL:DR on Waller... Cut rates, lift weights $USD

Chris Waller's odds of becoming next Fed Chair have jumped from 6.5% to 8% on the back of his call for a July rate cut. He's about to double-down on Bloomberg TV shortly. Probably boosts his odds even more $USD

Disinflationary impulses are less transitory than inflationary ones. Lower for longer rates in Europe & China. $USD weakness has a shelf-life

All of FinTwits memes from last 24 hours rolled into one 🤓