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Tariffs have become a major topic in the 2024 presidential election. Wendy Edelberg, Peterson Institute’s Maurice Obstfeld, Jason Furman, and Ana Swanson will discuss their economic consequences at a Brookings event on 10/17. Register -> hamiltonproject.org/event/across-t…

NEW RESEARCH: The impact of a Harris or Trump admin on net immigration + the likely macroeconomic implications for the U.S. Key findings from Wendy Edelberg, Tara Watson, Cecilia Esterline, and Stan Veuger: niskanencenter.org/immigration-an…

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have offered starkly different visions for immigration policy. Read about the potential consequences for the U.S. economy in a new analysis from Wendy Edelberg, Cecilia Esterline, Stan Veuger, and Tara E W: brookings.edu/articles/immig…

New research from AEI's Stan Veuger alongside Wendy Edelberg, Cecilia Esterline, & Tara E W analyzes the likely macroeconomic implications of both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump's visions for immigration policy. Read the full report here: aei.org/research-produ…

The presidential candidates’ differing approaches to immigration policy could show up in GDP growth—by as much as a half a percentage point (or $130 billion) in 2025, according to a new analysis from me, Cecilia Esterline, Stan Veuger, and Tara E W. brookings.edu/articles/immig…

Tariffs event tomorrow! Hear from Peterson Institute’s Maurice Obstfeld, Jason Furman, Ana Swanson, and me how across-the-board tariffs could affect inflation, supply chains, interest rates, and more. hamiltonproject.org/event/across-t…

TUNE IN: Tomorrow, we’re hosting a virtual event with Wendy Edelberg, Peterson Institute’s Maurice Obstfeld, Jason Furman, and Ana Swanson to discuss the economic effects of tariffs. RSVP: hamiltonproject.org/event/across-t…

The economic difference between the two US presidential candidates' immigration policies? ±$130 billion in economic growth, next year alone. New research by Wendy Edelberg Stan Veuger Tara E W Cecilia Esterline of The Brookings Institution American Enterprise Institute Niskanen Center brookings.edu/articles/immig…

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have offered starkly different visions for immigration policy. A new American Enterprise Institute-The Brookings Institution-Niskanen Center analysis considers possible paths for net migration under these agendas and their likely macroeconomic implications.

.Wendy Edelberg, Cecilia Esterline, Stan Veuger, and Tara E W consider a “high” and “low” immigration scenario for each presidential candidate, for a total of four scenarios that span the likely range of each candidate’s policy actions.

For each immigration scenario, the authors estimate the effect on real GDP growth from the change in immigration flows. Factors considered include the effect of net migration on consumer spending, precautionary saving, labor force growth, and investment.

Each of these immigration scenarios has different consequences for the U.S. economy, with a gap in 2025 GDP growth between the “Trump low” and “Harris high” scenarios of roughly half a percentage point, or $130 billion.

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have offered starkly different visions for immigration policy. Read about the potential consequences for the U.S. economy in a new analysis from Wendy Edelberg, Cecilia Esterline, Stan Veuger, and Tara E W: brookings.edu/articles/immig…

What could this election mean for immigration, and how would that affect the economy? Cecilia Esterline, Stan Veuger, Tara E W and I estimate 1) net immigration flows under a Trump or Harris administration and 2) the effect of these flows on GDP growth. brookings.edu/articles/immig…

A new American Enterprise Institute-The Brookings Institution-Niskanen Center analysis estimates that immigration policy could lead to roughly a 0.5 percentage point (or $130 billion) difference in GDP growth under the two presidential candidates in the first year. Learn more: brookings.edu/articles/immig…

Full study by Wendy Edelberg, Tara Watson, Stan Veuger, Cecilia Esterline: niskanencenter.org/immigration-an…

Get ready for #JobsDay with our real wage tracker: hamiltonproject.org/data/has-pay-k… & our new labor market check-up, which looks at unemployment, labor force participation, part-time work, flows into self-employment & more to see whether (& where) there’s slack: hamiltonproject.org/publication/po…

Accounting for hurricanes/strikes, 3-mo average monthly payroll is ~135k. Okay but shy of what I think was the sustainable pace. I am not *hugely* worried about a too-soft labor market, but given good inflation news, it's appropriate for MP to be less restrictive. Simple, right?

In a new column written with Stan Veuger, Tara E W and Wendy Edelberg highlight how former president Donald Trump's immigration policies could turn net migration negative in the US and dampen economic growth. Read here: aei.org/economics/pres…

For all of the folks improving their mental health and making their social media life more substantive by migrating over to bluesky - here's my handle: @wendyedelberg.bsky.social