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What began as a 2021 campaign trail Twitter fight has evolved into constant attacks between two members of Wisconsin’s congressional delegation My look at the worsening relationship between Reps. Derrick Van Orden and Mark Pocan: jsonline.com/story/news/pol… via Journal Sentinel

Re late-nite MKE count, the potential vote swing will be far smaller than last Nov, of course, when there were 109K absentee ballots in city. This time <50K. If libs win them by 50-60 pts, that's a net gain of 25-30K votes, compared to Dem net gain of 70K on late count last Nov

All our reporting on the Wisconsin Supreme Court race between Susan Crawford, Brad Schimel jsonline.com/story/news/pol… via Journal Sentinel

some good back of the envelope estimates in case the WI court race is so close that late-reporting absentee ballot counts in key Dem cities are pivotal (if Crawford is ahead before these ballots are reported, then it doesn't matter, of course)

Per tonite, to illustrate the GOP need to get “Trumpier” results in spring court races, take western WI’s 12-county La Crosse TV market. Trump won it by 5 pts in '20 and 8 in '24. But the liberal court candidate won it by 15 in ’18, 4.5 in ’19, 14 in ’20, and 10 pts in ’23

none of the WI county level results are complete so far, but just not seeing many places where Schimel is matching Trump's '24 point margins, which he has to do in a bunch of places, given narrowness of Trump victory

Ditto

On top of which, the next two court seats up in 2026 and 2027 are now held by conservatives, so next opportunity to win a WI court majority for conservatives won't happen until 2028, and that assumes they win in both 26 and 27

Overall, Wisconsin's Supreme Court race has seen $107 million in spending, according to my latest tally. Team Schimel and conservatives have put up $58 million of that. And right now, they're losing by double digits with nearly half of the statewide vote in.

For everyone who needs to hear this, it’s not JUST about turnout.

Like Protasiewicz in '23, Crawford is going to win Dane by bigger raw vote margin in a WI spring court race than H Clinton won Dane for pres. in 2016. Crawford's margin will be even bigger than Protasiewicz mgn of 153K votes due to higher turnout this time. Now at 162K ...

Turnout for this spring judicial election in Wisconsin appears to be at least 49% of the voting-age population, which, relying on Michael McDonald political scientist Michael McDonald's turnout database, exceeds the 2022 FALL MIDTERM VAP turnout rate in most of the 50 states (!)

Reposting from this morning, following President Trump’s tariff announcement this afternoon. Look for this, and the inflation impact later in the thread, to play a significant role for Trump support and GOP congressional support.

my take on the Wisc. election, where the unexpected combo of 10-pt lib/Dem victory AND the kind of insane November-style turnout GOP was hoping for (50% of voting age pop - more than US midterm turnout in '22) gave it added political significance bit.ly/4jgnVr5

I agree with this (the IND vote is part of the story). Dismissing Crawford's big win as a lower-turnout base vs base "special election" style win (as some are) misses the size of the WI turnout: almost 70% as big as WI's last prez turnout and almost 90% as big as last mid-term

timely national polling data on tariffs (survey conducted before yesterday's announcement, of course) from Charles Franklin

my look at the Trump Era forces that have led to liberal dominance of big court elections in Wisc. and how the April election math and political map has changed for Dems and Reps (including the big role Milwaukee is suddenly playing in these contests): bit.ly/4lD717X

interesting look by Alison Dirr at voting surge in city of MKE in state Sup Court races. over time the city has gone from hugely underperforming for liberals in court races to margins of >60 pts. my earlier look at how this trend played into Crawford win: bit.ly/4lD717X

A polling dive into Republican views of Trump's performance, which are far from monolithic, as Reps show some signs of softening in their enthusiasm and lots of concern about inflation/economy, per latest national MULawPoll

my look at whether the "fundamentals" favor a 3rd term for Dem Gov Tony Evers in WI should he run in '26. Biggest things in his favor: decent polling, and fact that incumbent govs/senators in the party opposed to the president almost never lose in WI: bit.ly/44kwv1U