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Here is the thing to understand about flattening the curve. It only works if we take necessary measures before they seem necessary. And if it works, people will think we over-reacted. We have to be willing to look like we over-reacted.

Unlike all other countries, the UK strategy aims to build herd immunity by allowing the steady spread of #COVID19. The government argue it will block a second peak in several months time. Here are EIGHT questions about this HERD IMMUNITY strategy: (THREAD)

Children infected with the #COVID19 outbreak coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, show mild symptoms but prolonged shedding of viral RNA in feces, suggesting that the fecal–oral route might play a role in virus transmission #CORONAVIRUS go.nature.com/2QdUY3Y

Heartbreaking. And a helpful reminder of the people and families behind the numbers. 😔

1. The govt strategy on #Coronavirus is more refined than those used in other countries and potentially very effective. But it is also riskier and based on a number of assumptions. They need to be correct, and the measures they introduce need to work when they are supposed to.

I tried to give a tentative explanation of the herd-immunity strategy. Here are some tough questions about it from someone who is extremely well qualified to ask them. 1/

A control is always very important...I mean, a GOOD one

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Preprint measuring half-life (the time that must pass to lose 50% of measurable virus levels) of #COVID19 virus and the original #SARS virus on copper, stainless steel, plastic, and cardboard, and in aerosols. medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

I should be qualified to comment on the covid-19 pandemic. I'm a computational/system biologist working on infectious diseases and have spent five years in a world class 'pandemic response modelling' unit. In this thread, I will summarise what I believe I (don't) know. (1/12)

This blog considers assumptions about the spread of the viral infection & the capacity of hospitals to provide ICU to those who will need it. He argues we should learn the lessons from China and Italy & go for lock-down immediately. Needs an urgent debate medium.com/@joschabach/fl…

Research suggests #COVID19 is most contagious before and during the first week of symptoms sciencenews.org/article/corona…

Here's a non-paywalled version of Matt Hancock's article in the Sunday Telegraph. I'm not all that reassured by it (but that could change with more info), but at least he explicitly states that achieving herd immunity is not part of the plan. gov.uk/government/new…

Although the French data don’t align with the Italian and Chinese sets yet, it’s never too late for the relatively young people to get alerted.

NEW: The UK only realised "in the last few days" that attempts to "mitigate" the coronavirus pandemic would not work, and that it needed to shift to a strategy to "suppress", according to a report by a team of experts who have been advising the government buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/co…

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A peculiar loss of a sense of smell or taste appears to be a common #COVID19 #coronavirus symptom in reports from multiple countries, and is increasingly used to guide recommendations to self-quarantine. nytimes.com/2020/03/22/hea…

Great team work!

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