New CEPR Discussion Paper - DP20009 Charting the Uncharted: The (Un)Intended Consequences of Oil Sanctions and Dark Shipping Francesco Zanetti, J Fernández-Villaverde Penn Economics Department, Y Li UIBE, L Xu Shanghai Jiao Tong University ow.ly/IyVi50VczN6 #CEPR_IMF #CEPR_ITRE #CEPR_MG #EconTwitter

New CEPR DP20009 Charting the Uncharted: The (Un)Intended Consequences of Oil Sanctions and Dark Shipping Jesús Fernández-Villaverde Penn Economics Department, Yiliang Li UIBE, Le Xu Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Francesco Zanetti Department of Economics, Oxford ow.ly/IyVi50VczN6 #CEPR_IMF #CEPR_ITRE #CEPR_MG

The main effect of tariff insanity: Uncertainty poisoning supply networks, degrading a lot of relationships at once. That scar tissue will linger for a long time. 1/

On April 17th the U.S. Trade Representative's office is expected to impose fees of up to $1.5M per port call for ships made in China and for $500k to $1M if the ocean carrier owns a single ship made in China or even has one on order from a Chinese shipyard. 🧵 1/

The webpage for the Geopolitical Fragmentation Index (GFI), which Tomohide Mineyama, Dongho Song, and I estimated, is now live: geopol-fragmentation-index.com The GFI captures the degree of global economic integration. A higher value signals rising fragmentation—countries drifting

In Financial Times today, Gillian Tett covers Johns Hopkins University Geoeconomics Conference where Matteo Maggiori gave the keynote. Article: shorturl.at/wkUv7 Conference page: shorturl.at/81GUS 1/2

🌍 How do states use economics as a tool of power? Join Jesús Fernández-Villaverde for a lecture on geoeconomics: where strategy meets policy. 📅 30 May, 1.30pm 📍 Oxford & online 🎟️ Register here for Free: bit.ly/4krBQes #OxfordEconomics #Geoeconomics #GlobalEconomy

GCAP and BGS will hold a JIE-GCAP-BGS Conference on Geoeconomics at Stanford Graduate School of Business on February 27-28, 2026. Call for papers: shorturl.at/r26Do Organized by Jesse Schreger, Jeff Frieden, Reka Juhasz, Carolin Pflueger, and Christoph Trebesch

Excited to be lecturing next week at Oxford (#OxfordEconomics) on geoeconomics; offering an overview of the field and discussing some of my own work, from measuring geopolitical fragmentation to using machine learning to track global shipping. 📅 30 May, 1.30 pm 📍 Oxford &

Excellent article in The Atlantic on plummeting worldwide fertility, based on Jesús Fernández-Villaverde 's work. theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

🚢🌍 Oil sanctions aren’t working the way you think. Russia, Iran, and Venezuela are all under sanctions. But oil keeps flowing. Why? Because of dark shipping — a vast, hidden network that sidesteps sanctions with precision and scale. On Thursday, I’ll be presenting at the NBER

Yesterday, I explained how, in “Charting the Uncharted: Oil Sanctions and Dark Shipping” (with Yiliang Li, Le Xu, and Francesco Zanetti), we used machine learning 🤖 to uncover that the dark fleet🚢transported 9.3 million metric tons of crude oil per month between 2017 and

Very excited to present some new work on the macroeconomic effects of supply chain disruptions at the NBER SI, joint with my brilliant student Ramya Raghavan!