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Another bet to prove skill vs. luck ratio in contest formats. I can choose 10% of the field in the BCBC and you can chose 10% of the field in the NHC. Whoever chooses the winner, wins the bet. If we both pick right, it’s a push.

People might get the wrong idea that I’m bashing 2WP players. I’m not! In fact, 2WP is a great place to start because the high luck factor prevents you from getting killed too fast. And those that dominate 2WP CONSISTENTLY, have a big amount of handicapping skill to overcome luck

Skill is repeatable, likely to persist into the future, shows consistency in results. Luck is one-off, mean-reverts, and utterly inconsistent.

For all the market junkies out there … US treasury bonds … what a move! I’m looking to really ramp up risk in this space and need your help on gauging sentiment! Will interest rates rise or fall into year end and how are you positioned?

Dang, flights are expensive! I have to finish like 4th out of 600+ in the NHC tournament to break even on the trip.

Horse betting contest players can relate to this dilemma

Machine learning is the same thing when you think about it—a fancy way of connecting the dots.

Simply incredible the advances in computer vision. The next generation of quantitative sports modeling looks bright.

Wild Gambler Wins Millions by Betting on Transgender Athletes 🏳️‍⚧️⚧️🏅

RIP the GOAT quant. simonsfoundation.org/2024/05/10/sim…

Gambling is good

Paul and Denny will be dropping some golden nuggets of info while I’ll likely be dropping some F-bombs at some point (over/under anyone?)

OG level risk management

If you have $300 and an opinion on the Belmont Derby card this Saturday, this is a must play if you like money.

I’m curious what people prefer.

Assume you have $250 to bet and you know a 11-1 shot is going to win but don’t know anything else Which do you prefer: 1) Win - 100% chance $3K 2) Exactas - 50% chance $6K, 50% chance $0 3) Trifectas - 20% chance $15K, 80% chance $0

Being Right vs. Making Money Many gamblers, especially those who often lose, frequently mix up the two. Some horseplayers are so infatuated with hitting a flashy ticket and proving to the world how brilliant they are that they ignore their dwindling bank accounts, which hint to

Handicapping vs. Betting Horseplayer X: Remember that longshot I was telling you about in the 8th race? Did you watch the race?! I loved that 12-1 winner. I watched the replay of his last race three times last night and spotted something that wasn't in the comment lines. The

Heads up, players — a valuable opportunity just dropped. NYRA has sweetened today’s contest by adding a $10,000 BCBC seat to the prize pool. This creates a strong overlay and a rare edge for players. If you’ve got $300 and a good opinion, today’s the day to step in.