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New productivity growth numbers consistent with the view that we remain almost exactly on the course that was expected prior to COVID. No evidence of an AI inflection in these data--at least not yet.

The Italian SuperBonus: How a badly designed fiscal "stimulus" ballooned to 6 times its budget to cost 12% of Italy's GDP, and what it tells us about the fiscal governance of Europe. A thread on my Silicon Continent post. (1/11)

🚨New working paper🚨 “The Political Costs of Taxation” with Joseph Enguehard & Igor Kolesnikov When a state has low capacity and legitimacy, attempts to enforce unfair taxation can fuel social conflict! Some key findings: 🧵 1/10

The flood of transshipments to Russia via Kyrgyzstan has been an open secret inside the EU since Russia invaded Ukraine. Poland and the Baltics cracked down on this. Italy did not. These transshipments are a choice. Italy prefers to make money rather than confront Russia...

While the USTR tariff calculator cites the findings from Cavallo, Gopinath, Neiman & Tang (2021) it is not entirely clear how they use our findings. Based on our research, the elasticity of import prices with respect to tariffs is closer to 1. If that figure were used instead of

Questo weekend è stato un weekend speciale per me e altre 100+ persone: festeggiamo 10 anni di rotta condivisa, in un gruppo con un nome un po’ buffo, Tortuga Think-tank .