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One useful bit of this Monmouth poll that's worth highlighting for how we think about polling on conspiracies: 42% of those who reported believing a TSwift conspiracy also hadn't heard about that conspiracy prior to being surveyed. monmouth.edu/polling-instit…

In this #APSRFirstView, Matthew Tyler & Shanto Iyengar test the robustness of the ANES feeling thermometer indicators of affective polarization. ow.ly/JFTJ50QK99k

Our understanding of changes in American politics would be abysmal without the ANES American National Election Studies (ANES)

Important new article showing how bad math is used in election conspiracy claims, and how it can be debunked.

New paper w/ Joshua Clinton proposing a method to improve small-area public opinion estimates by calibrating to ground-truth data on auxiliary outcomes. osf.io/preprints/soca…

During this year's STaRT@Rice, I’ll be teaching a workshop on missing data. You should join! Register here: start.rice.edu #STaRTatRice2024 STaRT@Rice Rice Social Sciences

From our new issue: "Testing the Robustness of the ANES Feeling Thermometer Indicators of Affective Polarization" by Matthew Tyler (Matthew Tyler) and Shanto Iyengar. #ASPRNewIssue cambridge.org/core/journals/…

No defiers is a required assumption for identification of LATE in IV analysis. If that is false, the best thing you can do is to calculate bounds for the LATE. But what happens if limit the maximum proportion of defiers. For instance, what if I don't believe is > 10%?

It’s his time