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Over last year I've been building a Senedd Election Simulator tool. It gives a useful (I hope!) visual explainer of how the new election system turns votes into seats. 🧵 on some of what it can do below: jaclarner.github.io/senedd_etholia…

First, and the obvious one, is that it can turn vote shares into estimates of seats in the new expanded Senedd using either uniform or proportional swing. Users can either enter their own numbers or choose from presets of different scenarios

It also visualises for seats are actually allocated in different constituencies and tells us how tight the margins are.

Finally it gives us information about coalition possibilities and proportionality of the results. I've written up an explainer here that outlines how it works, what it does and doesn't do, and also plans for improvement blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wales…

Analysis and breakdowns of demographic data and the way in which it translates in terms of Senedd representation incoming later - some very interesting patterns emerging (from the YouGov ITV Barn polling dataset 060525) Be excited! 😁 😊

I find it difficult to understand why so many elderly people are voting for the Reform Party. Do they realise their vote could negatively impact the future of their children and grandchildren? Anyone over 70 should take time to discuss their voting choices with younger

Conservatism is negligible among the young, a laughable, fringe cultural orientation for posh nerds, incels and try-hards. The fact it’s the *dominant* orientation of the three major UK parties suggests the total detachment of the polit. class from the reality of cultural change.

The youth of Wales want a completely different Wales to what we have today, not only an independent Wales, but a Wales that will end neoliberalism, economic exploitation, and anglicisation. And build a Cymru Newydd, in which the Welsh govern Wales for the betterment of Wales.

There is a great deal of misunderstanding (and deliberate misinformation?) around the concept of Wales as a Nation of Sanctuary Welsh Government has *zero control* over numbers of asylum seekers and immigrants as this is not a devolved matter 1/

In this personal, thought provoking piece, one of our team reflects on how, and what, we choose to remember on occasions such as VE Day - what lessons have we learnt from the past? buff.ly/LJS7rbd