Obviously technical, but this equation (1) on the push-and-pull of relevant variables determining whether tariffs cause a recession in the short-term is a really helpful and straightforward way to approach it:

New CEPR Discussion Paper - DP20165 The Macroeconomics of Tariff Shocks Adrien Auclert Stanford Economics, Matthew Rognlie Northwestern Economics Minneapolis Fed, Ludwig Straub Harvard Department of Economics ow.ly/Jo0G50VIO5N #CEPR_IMF #CEPR_MEF #EconTwitter

Great thread aligning a macro model with the latest GDP data! Times like this make you appreciate that data isn’t necessarily more useful than models even tho models are often derided as being wrong or useless. It’s also useful to remember that data is always model-dependent!

Tariff shocks can lead to short-run recessions, as consumers both at home and abroad postpone purchases. These recessions outweigh the traditional welfare effects of tariffs, from Adrien Auclert, Matthew Rognlie, and Ludwig Straub nber.org/papers/w33726

Any Econ PhD students at Harvard (or elsewhere in the U.S.) worried about visa status, the Institute for International Economic Studies has openings for PhD students who have completed their coursework and are at the dissertation stage, starting in the fall. Apply here: su.se/institute-for-…

🚨If you are a macroeconomist using the “sequence-space” to solve your models, come share your work at this SITE conference, September 8-10! Both substantive and methodological contributions are welcome. The deadline is this Monday, June 16! with Ludwig Straub and Matt Rognlie

Just got back from this year’s Kansas City Fed Jackson Hole Symposium. What a special place! Beautiful scenery, interesting papers, and great discussions. I presented new work with Adrien Auclert, Hannes Malmberg, Matt Rognlie… 🧵

I use the framework from a new paper presented by Ludwig Straub at Jackson Hole last week to explain a worrying scenario: an AI-driven productivity boom will likely raise global interest rates. If Europe lags behind, it could face a fiscal nightmare. siliconcontinent.com/p/r-without-g

1/10 Good news on AI could be bad news for Europe's debt. A boom in AI-driven productivity could end decades of slow growth. But for Europe, this silver lining may hide a fiscal storm cloud. Here’s why.

I’m delighted to receive this award! Janet Yellen has been a great inspiration for me. Thank you to the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco for the honor and encouragement!