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Analyzing US multinational enterprises' trade flows using newly linked customs transaction data and their production networks, revealing intrafirm linkages and trade frictions in regional supply chains, from lalfaro, Paola Conconi, Fariha Kamal, and Zachary Kroff

I’ve been talking a lot today with Arpit Gupta about fertility in India, its recent evolution, and the serious problems with its demographic data. Let me plot the historical evolution of India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) based on the 2024 UN World Population Prospects and its

When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

Why has fertility suddenly crashed everywhere all at once? There are many factors, which vary across all world regions & over time. But we should also recognise the collapse of coupling. Always open to new data & ideas! 🙂 Graph by John Burn-Murdoch

On June 19th, PISM (the center I direct at Penn Economics) launches our annual summer open online course. This year’s theme: Foundational Thinkers in Economics. 🧠 econthought.org Over 11 sessions (Tues & Thurs, 11:30am EST), we’ll cover: Xenophon, Aristotle, Aquinas,

Since 2026 ASSA metting will take place in our city, Philly Fed will organize the Day-Ahead Conference on January 2 (Fri). Papers on financial markerts and institutions, broadly defined, are welcome. Deadline is June 30. Please see attached call for details and submit your paper!

This one chart from today's podcast guest Jim Egan. Incredible. The difference between having a ZIRP-era mortgage and not having one.

We just updated our tariff paper. We now assign products to precise HS-10 codes—replacing the older COICOP-HS mapping—and extend the price data through June 12. Imported prices are up ~3% since early March, a modest increase given the scale of announced tariffs. Most of the

The New Global Economy: Trade Wars and De-dollarisation? Submission deadline: 1 July 2025 Conference: 27-28 September 2025 Location: Cambridge, UK With Keynotes by Oleg Itskhoki and Sylvana Tenreyro LSE Department of Economics

A must-read for parents and school administrators. It would be great if WIS Red Devils would act on phone-free schools. nytimes.com/2025/06/18/opi… via New York Times Opinion

This is a very cool paper showing social class affects career progression within US academia.

Just launched: Interactive charts from our latest paper, updated as new data comes in. Track how tariffs are affecting import and domestic prices, broken down by country of origin. Explore the data → pricinglab.org/tariff-tracker/

Our Radical Debt Transparency report is out - and it’s a wake-up call. Despite progress, many countries still struggle with hidden debts, opaque instruments, and weak oversight. Full report here: worldbank.org/en/publication…. Key takeaways in this 🧵1/10

Forthcoming in the JEL: "Difference-in-Differences Designs: A Practitioner’s Guide" by Andrew Baker, Brantly Callaway, Scott Cunningham, Andrew Goodman-Bacon, and Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna. aeaweb.org/articles?id=10…

📢New deep-dive paper on China’s BRI lending (Georgetown/AidData/Kiel). We study "How China Collateralizes" its overseas loans — not with ports/infrastructure, but with cash in Chinese bank accounts. The techniques and volumes are striking.🧵Paper here: ifw-kiel.de/fileadmin/Date…

TODAY! 11h DC time; 17h Geneva time! 👉CEPR e-book launch: The Great Trade Hack by Richard Baldwin piie.com/events/2025/ce… cc: Simon J. Evenett Scott Lincicome Noah Smith 🐇 Lawrence H. Summers Brad Setser Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Jason Furman Branko Milanovic Justin Wolfers Jagjit S. Chadha Lucian Cernat

Essential reading for #policymakers, academics, and business leaders seeking to understand how the global #economy is changing - and how to navigate what comes next. The State of #Globalisation ed. Richard Baldwin & Michele Ruta IMF cepr.org/publications/b…

Excellent article in The Atlantic on plummeting worldwide fertility, based on Jesús Fernández-Villaverde 's work. theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

A lot of reading to catch up with while in Italy Tito Boeri