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This sample is off the wall nuts. 37% daily Parler users, 57% Newsmax primary source, 85% self-report vote in 2018, 0% favorables of Biden, 83% economy good/excellent. How did you recruit this sample? Bordering on irresponsible to report, given the rhetoric around polling misses.

Bill Forsyth's LOCAL HERO (1983), cinematography by Chris Menges ✨ criterionchannel.com/local-hero

Remembering Michael Apted, whose UP series Andrew Sarris once called “clearly the most remarkable nonfiction film project in the history of the medium.” criterion.com/current/posts/…

*exhales*

Despite the fact that the Recall Newsom effort is being run by far-right loons, I think it will meet the signature threshold to be voted on. Newsom is truly awful, and CA Dems should unite behind any reasonable alternative (Solis -- my preference, Breed, Schaaf, Kounalakis).

The idea that the mayor of Los Angeles is a "front-line medical worker" and thus should be vaccinated now is such a facially obvious moral affront that it's hard to believe it hasn't provoked mass resignations and a call for legal investigations.

My Annual Reviews of Political Science article "Who Enters Politics and Why?" is now available online. annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.114…

1. BREAKING: The Canadian government has just banned 4 far-right groups as terrorist groups, along with 9 others, mostly AQ/ISIS affiliates: (a) Atomwaffen Division (b) The Base (c) The Proud Boys (Canada is the only country to list them so far) (d) The Russian Imperial Movement

Rep Ron Wright died of COVID today. Noteworthy that his final vote before dying was no on impeachment, and also that he reportedly did not get the COVID vaccine in December when it was offered to members of congress for continuity of government purposes. voteview.com/person/21984/r…

Just in case there's anyone who follows me and doesn't yet have disdain for the entire enterprise of "fact checking", here's a doozy.

Okay, so granted the denominator of this equation changed a bit, but Ralph Nader got 600,000 more votes for President than Abraham Lincoln did.

Do commodity price shocks cause armed conflicts? In a new letter in #APSRFirstView, @graemedblair, Aaron Rudkin, and CRDZ find it depends on the commodity. #APSR #polisciresearch ow.ly/qrod50DRt5Y

🚨 New working paper alert! 🚨 How do voters use nationalized policy information to select candidates? Aaron Rudkin and I find out using a conjoint design. tldr; all policy info is useful, nationalized info moreso, and polarized info the most (🧵1/n)

Hans Noel APSA Using conjoints, Aaron Rudkin and I find the relative emphasis voters place on state/national issue positions in candidate selection. We find (1) both s/n issue positions are used (2) national more that state & (3) more partisan issues = stronger effect derekholliday.com/pdfs/Holliday_…

Excited to present tomorrow at #APSA2021 on some of my dissertation work about how audience beliefs and content preferences affect demand for state and independent media in Russia. Stop by Skagit 2, 10/2 8:00am!