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Oh.

Ich habe noch nicht eine qualifizierte Äußerung aus der Bundesregierung zu den gigantischen Risiken eines Regime Change im #Iran gehört. Nicht einen. Sich eine demokratische Regierung für den Iran zu wünschen, ist weder ausreichend, noch ist es Politik.

Here's one scenario that I think is unlikely: That #Iran's regime does not retaliate, instead seeks negotiations and promises to never pursue a nuclear weapon ever again.

Just to give you an idea, here is the main outfits #Iran can theoretically use for retaliation: * It's own (para) military orgs * Militias in Iraq * Huthis in Yemen * Hisbollah, if they are willing * operatives across the ME * Maybe operatives deep in the West & elsewhere

These past ten years have all but destroyed any belief I may have had in statesmanship, leadership and politics based on thoughtfulness, factfulness and a desire to learn from the past.

Klar, unklar, nuklear Das erste Opfer des Krieges ist immer die Wahrh... Ach, so pathetisch müssen wir gar nicht werden. Im Moment reicht es, einfach mal festzuhalten: Keiner weiß was. (Ich hatte heute Gefühle bei der Arbeit.) -> zeit.de/kultur/2025-06…

+++ International media are reporting incoming attacks in Katar, likely Iranian and targeting US installations. Similar is expected for Kuwait and Bahrain acc to reports

Hat #Trump in seinem Statement gestern eventuell etwas Iran angereichert? -> zeit.de/kultur/2025-06…

+++Eil #Trump auf Truth Social: #Israel und #Iran haben vorläufiger Waffenruhe zugestimmt. - Gebe gerne zu, dass ich das nicht auf meiner Bingokarte hatte. Ob es stimmt, ob eine Seite widerspricht, ob es, falls es stimmt, hält, werden wir bald sehen.

I am glad if hostilities cease between #Israel and #Iran. But it's not like the situation in #Gaza has improved in any way whatsoever. And that is what needs to change.

I am off-duty, so instead of doing real research myself, I just asked Chatgpt for shits and giggles. Here is the answer: "There’s no known record of any U.S. president before Donald Trump publicly saying the exact phrase “God bless Iran.”"

Whom to believe what?

So, if 1) #Netanyahu & #Trump were serious that attack was about stopping #Iran bec it was weeks or months away from a nuclear bomb and 2) NYT/CNN are right that acc to intel attack only bought a few months then 3) peace is probably not gonna last Did I muss anything?

Hadn’t even seen this when I first the NYT piece.