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.Rudy Salas for Congress very close to Rep. David Valadao in CA-22. Dems were concerned two Rs might make it into general with two serious Dems on ballot, but Dem Salas only a couple points out of 1st place. Valadao 34%, Salas 30%

🔥 new paper alert! 🔥 In our now accepted Journal of Politics @[email protected] paper, Tarik Abou-Chadi, Pablo Barberá, Whitney Hua, PhD, and I contribute new measurements and an analysis of parties’ anti-elite strategies. Preprint: doi.org/10.31219/osf.i… Political Science Research #PartyPolitics #SocialMedia #TextAsData 🧵 ...

Claudia Sheinbaum has officially won the 2024 Mexico Presidential Election. She becomes the first woman President in the country’s history.

Kendrick had Crips and Bloods shaking hands dancing to him calling Drake a pedophile to an entire audience of screaming fans. There has never been such a complete cultural victory before this. this is Genghis Khan levels of hating.

🚨 New paper in Nature Communications 🚨 We created deepfakes of the current & former President Donald J. Trump giving speeches (w/ voices from voice actors & ElevenLabs) to study what drives how well people can tell fake speeches from real ones Time to update the "Seeing is Believing" narrative 👇

This. But for manuscript central.

This must be tweeted every Halloween. I don’t make the rules

So it seems my forthcoming paper is especially relevant. Some takeaways: 1) Latino Democrats/Republicans are partisans 2) Latino independents vote for whoever talks about the economy 3) Republicans emphasized economics in Latino outreach while Dems emphasized race/immigration

Bad Bunny addresses the listeners who might not understand his lyrics 🐰

me after enough drinks on karaoke night

"you financed a $12.78 steak bowl from chipotle?"

If you’re into race, gender, political institutions, and like a little causal inference in your coffee, check out my new open-access article! I show how minority legislators adapt to systemic barriers by cosponsoring more than their non minority peers—with SDID to back it up.

Congrats to Raquel Centeno and José Javier on graduating with PhDs today! #USCgrad

Regular Reminder Please don’t interpret a “statistically insignificant” variable (i.e., p > 0.05) as having “no effect.” Instead, check whether the 90% CI excludes all meaningful effects. Journal: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.111… PDF: carlislerainey.com/papers/nme.pdf

As promised, here's a new post :) We’ve got 2 new DiD papers, 1 fantastic DiD guide, and a clever method from Athey–Chetty–Imbens on using experiments to fix observational bias Link: substacktools.com/sharex/3r81_DQS

What is the effect of primary election system reform on legislatures? At #EPSA UC3M in Madrid, José Javier and I theorize and show election reforms increase ideological diversity in legislatures, with findings strongest among Democrats. #EPSA2025

How do Mexican legislators respond to constituents of different racial identities? In our recently published work, we conduct an audit experiment and find Indigenous senders get more, and better, responses than European-White ones. Inclusion norms, meet Mexican representation!