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1/6 The lag conundrum of monetary policy Monetary policy affects activity with a lag. This enormously complicates the task of policy makers, and the design of disinflationary policy.

1) Whelp, that was an interesting few days. A retrospective.

Leland Miller shares his thoughts on the Chinese 20th party congress China Beige Book Apple 🔊: apple.co/3DhBjbc Spotify 🔊: spoti.fi/3N9Ttjw

Choose your fighter $AAPL $MSFT $GOOG $AMZN

1) Hey all: I have a few announcements to make. Things have come full circle, and FTX.com’s first, and last, investors are the same: we have come to an agreement on a strategic transaction with Binance for FTX.com (pending DD etc.).

1/ First off, I have a lot of sympathy for everyone involved in the current situation with FTX - it's stressful any time there is potential for customer loss.

As a result of corporate due diligence, as well as the latest news reports regarding mishandled customer funds and alleged US agency investigations, we have decided that we will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX.com.

This is a thread of my thoughts and feelings about the actions that led to FTX’s bankruptcy, and the enormous harm that was caused as a result, involving the likely loss of many thousands of innocent people’s savings.

1/Large language models like Galactica and ChatGPT can spout nonsense in a confident, authoritative tone. This overconfidence - which reflects the data they’re trained on - makes them more likely to mislead.

In this Generative AI wave, there's a lot of speculation about which tasks AI will be good for. I think there's one pattern that distinguishes tasks that are "practically useful" for AI to complete from ones that are not. I call it "hard to explain, easy to verify". 1/n

FYI chart: shocking share shift

All the best examples of GPT-4, from OpenAI:

Alex Copestake Max Marczinek Ashley Pople Katherine Stapleton evaluate the impact of the demand for AI-skills on job postings and wage offers. University of Oxford World Bank Research IMF ow.ly/9mFn50NvYNQ #STEGWorkingPapers #EconTwitter

Alex Copestake Max Marczinek Ashley Pople Katherine Stapleton evaluate the impact of the demand for AI-skills on job postings and wage offers. University of Oxford World Bank Research IMF ow.ly/9mFn50NvYNQ #STEGWorkingPapers #EconTwitter

India: Establishments with high demand for AI skills show negative effects on postings and wages for: -High skill, professional occupations -Non routine work -Analytical/communication tasks. By Alex Copestake, Marczinek, Ashley Pople, Katherine Stapleton steg.cepr.org/publications/a…

AI and services-led growth: Evidence from Indian job adverts - Alexander Copestake (IMF), Ashley Pople, Katherine Stapleton Katherine Stapleton (World Bank), Max Marczinek (@UniOOxford) ideasforindia.in/topics/product…

🤷🤷‍♀️New data: SHRUG 2 is out!! Development Data Lab has been working on this for two years, a HUGE update to India’s coolest data platform: 1. Maps of *every* 2011 town and village, with ids 2. All data at every geography (villages, districts, ACs, etc)... devdatalab.org/shrug 🧵1/N

Join us on May 6, at 10:00 AM ET, for the launch of the new issue of IMF Research Perspectives, delving into the transformative effects of new technologies, digitalization, and AI on productivity, labor markets, and more. Register here: cvent.me/KD0Vkr

+++ Please join us to the launch event and the release of the new issue (I am the Guest Editor ;)) - with welcoming remarks from #AntonioSpilimbergo, and contributions from Prachi Mishra, Marina M. Tavares, #AlexCopestake, Gaby Cugat, and Yueling Huang +++

I'm glad to see my work with Alex Copestake and Davide Furceri being featured in The Economist ! Check it out! ⬇️⬇️⬇️