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New short meta-survey on the SSPP: can you predict how well people predict? 👇

This reminds me of this paper, which gave randomized access to GPT-4/4o for checking the reproducibility of economics papers. Teams with LLM access took longer to assess computational reproducibility (but not statistically significant). econstor.eu/bitstream/1041…

Scientific claims that are published multiple times are more likely to replicate than if published only once. And this is especially so if the multiple publications are from *independent* teams

Neural networks (e.g., LLMs) make often imperfect predictions, introducing biases into analyses that rely on them. Common empirical economics scenarios fall outside the existing literature on debiasing “black-box AI”. Our paper (with Jake Carlson) on robust and efficient

*** Everything Now Happens at "Earlier Stages of Development" Part 7932 *** Whether it's life expectancy convergence, deindustrialisation, (sub)replacement fertility, democratisation, everything has been happening at "earlier stages of development". Urbanisation --

Finally read the The Lancet article claiming US foreign assistance cuts will lead to 14mill deaths up to 2030 which has garnered much media attention. Its problematic to say the least, X-country regression with mortality on left and US spending per head on right. 1/ 🧵

Cool evidence of progress against RSV from new vaccines and monoclonal antibodies -- hospitalizations are down in the youngest age cohort (exposed to new science) but not in older cohorts (not expose) via Saloni great newsletter

See our No-Spin report on the Baby’s First Years RCT, studying the effects of providing unconditional cash transfers to low-income, new mothers in the US. In brief: This high-quality RCT found no impact on any of the study’s primary child development outcomes at 4y follow-up.🧵

Every year, 230,000 children are spared from HIV thanks to treatments that reduce mother-to-child transmission— It’s hard to imagine many things that are more terrifying than your baby contracting HIV. This is the reality for around 130,000 families every year. Just a few

When I got tenure, I decided to use it start a new research agenda, studying US science in the 20th century, how it became dominant, what held it back, and what we can do better. Here's the first pub (with Scott Kim).

AI & development economics: Early evidence + how to keep up Here's what Oliver Hanney has been reading, watching & listening to - includes early evidence on AI's impacts, what development organisations are working on & how to stay up to date. Read ⤵️ voxdev.org/topic/ai-and-d…

The PEPFAR cut is being removed from the rescissions package, per Sen. Schmitt. Reduces the size of the overall cut by $400 million.